Woodbine Harness: Saturday 4/8 Analysis
Best Bet: AMERICAN VIRGIN (9th)
Spot Play: FINE DIAMOND (2nd)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,5,8/3/2,3,4/1,3,4/1,5,10 = $16.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4/1,5,10/2,4/2,7,8 = $53
LATE PICK 4: 2,7,8/4,5/1,6/1,4,8,10 = $48
MEET STATS: 204 - 745 / $1,199.70 BEST BETS: 29- 68 / $105.50
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 67 / $89.90
Race 1
(3) BUTTERMILK HANOVER improved her late speed in her 2nd start of the year and she should get a solid early pace to stalk here; call to upset. (8) ISLAY N was dull in her local debut, but the time off and wet track may have been contributing factors; using. (5) ART ANGEL BABY was full value for her win last week, but she is unlikely to get the same trip here. I'm using her in the Pick 5, but trying to beat her if she is a short price. (6) DANCING SHADOWS K is always around the money and she should be good for another share here.
Race 2
(3) FINE DIAMOND looked live at the end of his most recent mile vs. Preferred types. With very little early speed evident here, Filion is likely to send him on a speed mission. (6) ROCKIN WIZARD may get sent hard for position by Roy, which would give him a decent chance here. (2) AUDREYS DREAM is always closing, but the pace scenario may work against him here. (5) MACHAL JORDAN should be in the top flight early and stick around for a share of the Super.
Race 3
(4) DIALAMARA races best around this level and Roy had a test drive vs. better last week; top call. (5) CHAMPAGNE PHIL raced well in a race where the leader set wicked fractions and was basically uncatchable at Flamboro last time. He is in good form for his Woodbine return; consider for Pick 5 tickets. (2) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL's favorite strategy is to pounce late off an inside following trip just behind the leaders. That journey could materialize here. (7) SURPRISE HANOVER steps back up here but he could close for a smaller share.
Race 4
(1) PAPARAZZI HANOVER set some wild fractions last time and still almost held on. A bit better rating gets it done against these. (4) REGAL SON figures prominently at this level and he could get a sweet pocket trip here; using. (3) TRACEUR HANOVER also merits serious consideration at this level in a race where several could win with the right trip. (5) COOL ROCK was sharp in his season debut now he picks up Filion. Any battling for the lead benefits him.
Race 5
(10) BRINGHOME THEBLUE takes a big class plunge here and you have to think Drury will be blasting with him. Top call despite his post. (5) SHADOW MARGEAUX also drops and he could perk up here and get an aggressive drive from Hudon. He is the most likely alternative to the choice. (1) TWOMACSONEMACH paced a long mile last time now he moves inside and picks up Roy. He has a chance to upset. (6) SPORTS LIGHTNING set a wild early pace last time and still managed to hold off all but the winner. A smaller share seems likely here.
Race 6
(2) ROSE RUN RUDI was ready for his four-year-old debut and he smoked non-winner of three foes. He stands a good chance to repeat here. (4) STONEBRIDGE PEACE took a new life's mark when winning easily last week. This improving mare is a must-use for me. (5) I WANT KANDY was well-beaten by the choice, but was best of the rest. She should pass many of these for a slice here.
Race 7
(8) LYONSSMEWHERE looked a bit like his old self last time at Flamboro when unleashing his wicked speed in a powerful win. If he can clear before the 1/4 here, he should be tough. (2) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS lost an early pace duel but held for 2nd when claimed. Respect his consistency. (7) DINNER AT THE MET was the beneficiary of a protracted pace duel last time, and he easily rolled by late. He may be overbet off his 25 4/5 final 1/4 here and he is certainly no lock vs. these. (4) MR CARROTS moves back up to a level where he usually finishes on the fringes. He can take a minor award here.
Race 8
(5) FIRST CAR set a new life's mark last time in a race in which he was out in 26 2/5 and home in 27 flat. Anything close to a repeat of that sharp effort should get him another win here. (4) SENIOR K was a good 2nd to a strong winner last time. He looks like the main threat. (6) SOUTHWIND MONTY races better when he makes his move later in the mile, which he may do here. (3) SPEEDLING can take a share racing close up here.
Race 9
(1) AMERICAN VIRGIN has been sensational at this meet and he will likely take control of this race on the backstretch for his 5th straight Preferred win. (6) ALEXAS JACKPOT is always a threat with his aggressive racing style. He is the other one I will use in the late Pick 4. (5) NICKLE BAG never lacks effort, but often falls short vs. these; minor share predicted. (4) ANDREIOS KARDIA showed little in his return. He should go better here.
Race 10
(1) JIMMY BE GOOD finished evenly in a very quick mile for the class last week. Moving into a conditioned race, he will likely offer a square price and he's worth a stab here. (4) UF BETTORS HANOVER closed well in a race where they weren't slowing down late. He is trip-dependent, but capable. (8) PERFECT VISTA may show more early speed here in a race that seems void of leavers; using. (10) REGIL TIGER is another that could benefit from a quick start and he can share. (3) SINGLE WHITE SOCK should work out a decent trip here. He could better this placing.
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