Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/18 Analysis
Best Bet: MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS (3rd)
Spot Play: REDONKULOUS (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4,6/1,2,4/4/3,4,5/3,9 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4,5/3,9/1,3,5/1,5,8 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,5,8/2,3/1,3/5,6,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 161 - 625 / $999.80 BEST BETS: 26 - 58 / $94.00
SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 55 / $86.20
Race 1
(6) SENIOR K raced better than I expected he would last week after missing five weeks. He should be even better here; top call in the opener. (4) LITTLE WOODY was a winner in this class two back and he should get an aggressive steer here from Roy; using. (1) FIRST CAR has raced well several times in this class and he could trip out chasing the speed here. He's another Pick 5 option to consider here. (5) DREAMFAIR MESA can contend for a slice here returning from a break.
Race 2
(1) AMERICAN VIRGIN has won four of his last six in this top class and he should be formidable here if missing a week doesn't leave him short. (4) J JS DELIVERY is the claim of the meet and he continues to race well. He might even be a square price here moving back up to the top class. (2) NICKLE BAG is as tough as they come and hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets although his aggressive style often leads to him getting out-tripped. (5) FINE DIAMOND raced better last week and he should take a share at a minimum here.
Race 3
(4) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS went a monster uncovered trip to win last week when claimed back by Auciello. He will be tough to beat here and will likely change hands again. (6) SMALLTOWN TERROR has excelled using a closing style since being claimed three starts back. He will be flying late again here. (1) CHEYENNE FORD won with absolute ease last week and although these are tougher, he isn't out of this. (7) DALTON DID IT was hounded all the way by the choice last week and he hung in there. He isn't impossible here, but he seems more likely to take a smaller share as has been his custom this season.
Race 4
(5) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE made an earlier move than he had been last week and it paid off. He is solid in this class and Cullen will likely pull the trigger early enough to take control here, too; call to repeat. (4) HALF A BILLION was flying late last week, but the pace was also slowing quickly at the end of that mile. He is trip dependent, but can win here. (3) DIALAMARA vaulted off cover last week but he couldn't catch the leader. He is likely to take a smaller share here, too. (8) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE was part of a blanket finish last week where the backfield benefitted from a slowing late pace. He can take a small share here.
Race 5
(9) THREE OF CLUBS takes a big class plunge as he makes his third start back after missing three weeks. He should be on an all-out speed mission from the start here. (3) ERLE DALE N did all the heavy lifting last time and he paid for it late in the mile. A slightly easier trip puts him right there vs. these. (7) PAR INTENDED has improving form since being claimed three starts back. He can close for a share here and could even upset if the pace falls apart late. (4) MOHAWK WARRIOR always seems to figure on paper, but he is hard for me to like on top and has turned into a bit of a money burner.
Race 6
(5) STONEBRIDGE PEACE took a closing approach last week and while she had some trot to offer late, she was too far back to capitalize. I would expect Hensley to get her moving earlier this time. (3) I WANT KANDY finished just ahead of the choice last time and she too is capable of displaying more early speed; using. (1) GOLD MEDAL SWAN got rebuffed when trying to move to the front on the backside last week and that killed his chances. He could take this if he can get to the front and clear this time. (8) MAJOR MUSCLE drops down from the non-winners of four class and she could carry her speed much farther here.
Race 7
(8) UF BETTORS HANOVER got an aggressive drive from Hensley two starts back and it paid off. He returns here and he could get him home again at a price. (5) EVASIVE CARD SHARK went a mile two back that would be more than good enough to win this if he could duplicate that effort. (1) PERFECT VISTA faces easier here and he could be a good Pick 4 option on the class drop. (3) BIGTOWN HERO is tough to read coming off a big qualifying win as the same pattern last November produced a last-place finish.
Race 8
(3) MACH CODE drops back to the class where he won two back setting strong fractions all the way. He can control this race. (2) BRILLIANT STRIKE N was motoring late last time, but he was no threat to the winner. He needs to start his move earlier. (6) SHADOW PLACE is always competitive in this class. He should take a share, at least. (5) MACHAL JORDAN has reached peak form and he can make the ticket despite moving up in class.
Race 9
(3) SIR GALAHAD closes well every week. Things will fall his way one of these times; maybe tonight? (1) THE ROCKINATOR dug in first-over last week and he can threaten here despite the class rise. (4) MAJOR HILL had pace late in the mile two back and he took lots of action last week but blew up at the start. Two breaks in three starts are concerning here. (2) LATE NIGHT can sit another good trip near the front and take a slice here.
Race 10
(7) REDONKULOUS had no chance last week trying to close into the fastest part of the race late, but he was willing and passing horses. (5) CODE WORD can threaten here if he can avoid being first-up again. (6) PANEDICTINE drops to a more reasonable spot here and he should be passing horses late. (3) VELOCITY DRIVEN takes a big drop and he should be heard from, but, he is likely to be overbet. (2) MR CARROTS took a ton of late action last time but had a rough trip. He should go better here with some post relief helping.
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