Woodbine Harness: Saturday 3/11 Analysis
Best Bet: BIG YELLOW (5th)
Spot Play: MIGHTY PERUVIAN N (4th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,5,6/2,4/1,6,9/1,4,5,6/3,4 = $38.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,5,6/3,4/2,3,8/1,3,6,8 = $96
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,6,8/5,6/3,5,6/1,5,9 = $72
MEET STATS: 154 - 595 / $951.50 BEST BETS: 24 - 55 / $86.40
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 53 / $81.20
Race 1
(6) RESISTANCE FUTILE continues to race well and finish fast every week. The short field should help him here. (3) J JS DELIVERY has earned more than $48K since being taken from a $15K claimer on December 19th and has missed only one check in 10 starts since. He is a top contender here, too. (2) THREE OF CLUBS will be dangerous here if he could land in the pocket and that scenario is very possible. (5) SHADOW PLACE drops and figures. This is a tough start to the Pick 5 which will likely be decided by trip.
Race 2
(4) NICKLE BAG has a chance to take control of this race at some point with American Virgin not in this week. I'll give him the slight nod over (2) ALEXAS JACKPOT, who is the other one that should be prominent on or near the lead throughout. (6) MACH CODE steps up but is razor-sharp and isn't out of this. (1) AUDREYS DREAM can pass some of these late for a share.
Race 3
(6) STONEBRIDGE PEACE gets back to a 7-day cycle after just failing to hold on last week. She can make amends here. (1) GOLD MEDAL SWAN raced tough in repelling a couple of bids in the back 1/2 to win last week. He is a big threat here, too. (9) I WANT KANDY is a good price option for multi-race bets. She has won on this circuit in the past and can produce enough speed to compete. (8) LABATT HANOVER raced decently in this class last week. He should take a share here.
Race 4
With so much speed signed on here and so many horses debuting in new barns, this race could go to the horse that makes the last move and that could be (4) MIGHTY PERUVIAN N who gets a slight nod. (1) CRAFTY MASTER has a good late burst on his best day and he is in good enough form that he could surprise here if things fall his way. (6) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS cut big fractions and kept going last week, now he debuts for Moreau; using. (5) DOVUTO HANOVER was bumpy-gaited coming to the wire last week when claimed by Allard. Can he fix him up in a week? Your call.
Race 5
(4) BIG YELLOW went a long trip on the rim last week and stayed game late. A slightly better trip could see him in front at the wire this time. (3) THE ROCKINATOR faces easier and comes back much quicker this week; using. (1) SPEEDLING missed by a step in a game effort last week and he is another multi-race option here. (5) SENIOR K may get bet here, but he is best watched after missing seven weeks.
Race 6
(3) ROCKIN WIZARD has been in great form this year and he appears to face slightly easier here despite racing in the same class as last week; top call. (8) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE finished just ahead of the choice last week, but post may be his undoing here. (2) SHADOW MARGEAUX won last time he was in this class, but he beat easier that day; smaller share predicted. (9) MICKEY HANOVER steps up off a sharp win and he should be a pace presence again here.
Race 7
(8) PRESCOTTS HOPE has seen better days, but, he got a clean line last week now drops again. If he can bring anything close to his 'A' game, he will blitz these. (3) EVASIVE CARD SHARK produced a phenomenal mile last week that if repeated would make him very tough here. (6) CODE WORD raced much better in his 2nd start for Allard, now he returns to the big track; using. (1) DREAMY FELLA could see this race fall apart late which would play to his strength. Keep him in mind for wider Pick 4 tickets.
Race 8
(5) SENIOR MARKET should get asked for speed at the start here leaving from the middle of the gate and that's when he does his best work; top call. (6) MCKINNEY gets a big upgrade in drivers here which makes him an automatic threat vs. this suspect bunch. (9) SPORTS LIGHTNING can improve with the class drop and hit the ticket at a price. (3) RAFA is one of the bigger money burners on the circuit. Use on the bottom only.
Race 9
(6) REDONKULOUS should get some serious pace to chase here and he can produce a wicked late kick if saved for the stretch. Expect Cullen to take back early and come flying late. (5) SECRECY took no chances last week after two horrid trips in a row the two previous weeks. He too can come flying late. (3) SIR GALAHAD is another that should be out in the flow looking to strike late. (1) LYONS SANDS will be one of several leaving hard and he can stick around for a slice.
Race 10
(5) ERLE DALE N was one of three McNair could have chosen to drive here. An aggressive effort is expected starting from the middle of the gate. (9) THE REV drops and is one of few that exhibit high early speed. He should get a good spot early here. (1) MACHAL JORDAN is another that figures to leave in the top flight and that's an important consideration in this bulky field. (3) PANEDICTINE, (6) DIALAMARA and (11) DARCEE N are three closers that merit a close look when making out High-5 tickets on mandatory payout night.
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