Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/7 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY $1 PICK 4:
4,5,9 / 1,5 / 4,8 / 6,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 42 - 124 / $239.10 BEST BETS: 5 - 12 / $25.40
SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 11 / $43.50
Best Bet: I SCOOT SAM (3rd)
Spot Play: MONTREAL PHIL (9th)
Race 1
(1) BRUCE THE BRAVE has been in a long winless funk for some time but has shown some life in his two most recent miles which may signal a major breakthrough is coming. Call tonight at a price. (6) OUR MOJO broke stride chasing dominant winner EW Fisher. He is the obvious one dropping in class but is horribly win shy; your call. (5) ALEXANDER LUKAS beat a similar calibre three back and drops back to a level that makes him competitive. Certainly the top two from his most recent would be major players in here.
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Race 2
(6) NICKLE BAG is in the best shape and form of his racing life. Beat him to greet the cashier. (1) FRANKIES DRAGON had a bit of a rough time making the top last time before coming under siege from the choice. He's the main danger here. (2) MUSSELSFROMBRUSSELS is very sharp and is going to trip out and beat all of these as the longest shot on the board one of these times; maybe tonight?
Race 3
(7) I SCOOT SAM was the victim of some major traffic troubles and was motoring noticeably once he had room in the final 1/16th . Two fewer starters in this field may be all it takes for him to return to the winner's circle. (8) AMBLE OVER HANOVER was full value for the win over the choice, making multiple moves, but may face an earlier onslaught from that one this time. (2) UNIQUE BARAN found the tougher company more difficult but may go closer here 2nd time in the class.
Race 4
(4) A REAL COMMITMENT left from the outside, tucked, then was too far off the lead to make a big impact down the lane. She looks best in here. (9) JET HOTSTUFF was let go at a wild 45/1 despite showing great improvement in three successive races with McNair driving. She rewarded her backers handsomely and is too sharp to discount. (5) RUB N TUG carved out a perfect trip for herself and a solid win as a result; she rarely puts two good ones together. Let price be your guide.
Race 5
(1) WORLD AWAY closed into a quickening pace but was too far back last time. He can lay closer here and topple these. (5) HIT AND GIGGLE A was way too far back to make an impact. Moving closer to the middle of the gate gives him a better chance. (2) PUSH BACK has been right there the past two and projects to get a good trip either on or near the pace.
Race 6
(4) TWOMICKEYTRIP was a very impressive winner first time in the new barn. He has come back to action in the sharpest form of his life and looks like a new racehorse; top call here. (8) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT drifted off the pylons while accelerating down the lane, allowing a rival to slip up the rail and nail him very late. His ability to go long trips and keep going makes him a player here in this 12-horse dash. (11) KINDOFABIGDEAL brought his “A” game to the Snowshoe Final and took home the top prize. Traffic troubles could become an issue for him here leaving from the second tier.
Race 7
(9) GD AIRLINER drops to his lowest class in a while here and should handle these if Allard can get him a spot in the top 5 early. (6) MACH DREAMER went a big third quarter to get into contention but that acceleration took its toll; he can go close with a covered trip. (7) TOPCORNERTERROR almost pulled off a shocker last week and is sharp enough to take a share but needs to be up close early.
Race 8
(3) POWER MOVE makes the power move into the Moreau barn which might be all it takes to put him over the top vs. this group. He gets top call. (2) EW FISHER showed a chink in his armor last week as our Spot Play mowed him down late. The slow final quarters are starting to catch up to him. (4) JUST CALL ME LADY showed a new dimension blasting off the gate but then lacked room until late. She is a vastly improved racehorse and would be no surprise at all in here.
Race 9
(2) MONTREAL PHIL picked up 7 lengths into an accelerating pace in the second half last week. Filion should get him much better position early this time and he is very capable of beating these. (1) SING FOR ME GEORGE raced great despite missing three weeks of action and is always a danger in any class below the Preferred. (6) COUGAR HALL went right down the road to double up but these are tougher and his win streak likely ends at two here.
Race 10
(6) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS drops back into a similar class where he last won on 1/5; expect Drury to roll him early vs. this easier group. (4) FORK was expected to go better last time in his 2nd start back off a month layoff; maybe the third time's the charm? (2) WINDSONG GEANT is the obvious class of the race and switches barns for his 2015 debut; could do.
Race 11
(2) SPARKY MARK has been facing much better at The Meadowlands and is a big threat to wire these. (8) MACHAPELO has also been facing better and the switch to Jamieson likely signals all systems go here. (9) BROADIES SONG has hit his best stride and will be coming fast late again. When he is in his best form he can beat these; don't dismiss lightly. (1) ROCK ME AMASTREOUS should get a piece from the rail so long as he isn't moved first up as he was last week. (6) ADVERSARY SEELSTER showed something for the first time since returning from a long layoff and he could better this placing.
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