Woodbine Harness: Saturday 2/21 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
EARLY $1 PICK 4:
6 / 2,4,5,7,9 / 5,7,9 / 2,4,8 = $45
MEET STATS: 70 - 198 / $391.70 BEST BETS: 9 - 19 / $38.10
SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 18 / $54.10
Best Bet: POWER MOVE (8th)
Spot Play: AMERICAN GI (11th)
Race 1
(5) WAZZUP WAZZUP had some serious issues with the track last week which caused him to make several uncharacteristic breaks. He can make amends tonight if the track is in decent shape. He does not like it wet. (2) BILBO HANOVER used a monster 3rd quarter brush to open up an insurmountable lead. He has missed time since that mile though; mixed signals from him. (3) SING FOR ME GEORGE was picked off late after setting the pace but is more effective as a closer and will likely revert to that style here.
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Race 2
(5) NORTHERN VICTORY stayed in and encountered traffic issues in the stretch last week. He is far more likely to get his trip here starting from the 5-hole; top call. (2) WATKINS came first-up and was only overtaken very late by the one he provided cover for. He is in top shape now and must be respected. (6) EXEMPLAR produced two huge wins after switching to the Moreau barn and another wouldn't be a big surprise.
Race 3
(1) ARTISTIC FUSION had her 2015 win streak snapped last week but was digging hard at the wire and will likely leave closer and make her own luck here in the Ontario Girls Final. (7) JAKARDEZ has shown improvement every start for a cagey barn and could make some noise here at a huge price. (10) BET YA got the jump on the choice last week and hung on bravely to keep her at bay. The 10-hole may be her undoing here, though.
Race 4
(6) HIT AND GIGGLE A dropped into this class and was moved powerfully to the front by Henry in the third 1/4 and drove away impressively. He can take another here using similar tactics. (8) I SCOOT SAM continues to enter at the higher claiming price and draws outside again which sometimes hinders his late charge due to too much traffic in front of him. Your call. (9) JOSHUA MY BOY was beaten handily by the choice but claimed. He is likely firing again when the gate leaves, the question is: how long will he be on front?
Race 5
(2) MMS LUCKY BOY couldn't get to the dominant winner but maintained his sharpness with a good late charge and is likely to get speed to chase down and some good flow to follow here; top call. (5) CRACKER ZACK has been getting closer and this drop in class may be all he needs to find the winner's circle; beware. (4) PAPER BACKED LINDY got too far back last time but still finished with his good late zip and likely gets a favorable trip here. Keep him on your pick 4 tickets.
Race 6
(9) THUNDER STEELER returns from a short break for Waxman and judging by his latest qualifier, he's ready to go right away here. (7) SUMMER CAMP shipped in and looked good winning off a 6-month break. The step up in class isn't that great for this sharp gelding. (5) The Rev finally broke a long winless skein but has shown improvement in his last few and is a threat to repeat.
Race 7
Something tells us there is going to be way more action in the final of the Ontario Boys than in the preliminary legs and based on that estimate we'll call (4) PL HOOFHEARTED to come and mow them all down late in a big upset. He should be able to produce his best now in his third start over the track. (2) NIRVANA SEELSTER has been unbeatable in this series up to this point but has faced zero pressure on the lead. That changes here. (8) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN is another that can benefit from some dueling up front and is not out of the question for the win.
Race 8
(4) POWER MOVE lived up to his name first time in Moreau's barn and should take another here back in the same class. (2) EW FISHER has been sharp all winter here and showed a new dimension last week closing from way back to fall just short to a class-dropping winner. He looks like the only real danger to the choice. (6) HOUSE OF CASH finished with some good late trot for third in the same dash as the one above and is logical for a minor award again here.
Race 9
(6) HOPE FOR PADDY had a useful comeback race and may be able to chase all of these mares down late with the expected mid-race action in front of her setting things up. (2) WAASMULA continues to be snake bitten but has been sharp as a tack all winter and is sure to be there on the money again. (7) RUBIS PRESCOTT stepped up and upset most of these last week. There are fewer more consistent performers than her on this circuit so don't let her go at a big price again.
Race 10
(2) NICKLE BAG is in phenomenal form at the present time and tough to go against, even with a speedy newcomer in the field; top call. (3) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS came close to nailing the choice last time but had his perfect cover to follow and still couldn't get him. That exacta stands a good chance of repeating here. (6) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY ships in off a couple of big miles at The Meadowlands and joins the Menary stable. He'll have his hands full with the choice, however.
Race 11
(3) AMERICAN GI missed 5 weeks prior to his penultimate start and inexplicably took a ton of action at the windows and predictably showed little. Last week, back on a 7-day rotation he showed some late life and tonight's the night we expect to see more, likely at a much better price. (2) CONFLICT DIAMOND went a big trip on a track rated 3 seconds slow in the London Preferred last out. That translates into contender vs. this group. (8) MCKINNEY put up solid fractions and held on bravely a class lower last week. He looks like a different horse right now and should not be underestimated. (7) SPARKY MARK was overtaken in the 3rd quarter and kept chugging for a share. He has the speed to take these a long way but others figure higher. (9) STOMPIN TOM CREEK went a long mile and hung in there well. He's been sharp for a long time now and could better this placing.
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