Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/7 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1/1,3,4,5,6/1,5,7/2,3,4/1,3,4,6 = $36
EARLY PICK 4:2,3,4/1,3,4,6/2,3,5/4,8 = $72
LATE PICK 4:1,2,5/3,5,9/1,2,5/5,7 = $54
MEET STATS: 58 - 209 / 264.80 BEST BETS: 9 - 18 / $33.10
SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / 38.00
Best Bet: MACHAL JORDAN (1st)
Spot Play: PRESCOTTS HOPE (7th)
Race 1
(1) MACHAL JORDAN takes a big class drop here in his third start back off a break and wins most of his races on the class drop angle. He should handle these. (4) CRAFTY MASTER raced tough on the rim in a quick mile last week and is the one to fend off late here. (5) IDOLE DUHARAS steps up but has been razor-sharp for weeks and can't be dismissed.
Race 2
(4) EXEMPLAR raced tough on the lead last week and was picked off late by a rival holding a class edge. He should be prominent throughout here. (6) WHITE BECOMES HER was much-improved late in the mile last week with Lasix added. She is worth inclusion here at what should be a square price on the class jump. (5) CHARMED LIFE is one of three mares exiting the Breeders Crown here and she should be passing rivals late for a share, as always it seems.
Race 3
(7) MILEYS BIG WORLD fell prey late last week to a foe that unleashed an incredible rush to nail her right on the wire. This mare has been sharp and competitive for a long time and tonight should be no different. (5) HOPE FOR PADDY forms the second half of a potent 1-2 punch for the leading trainer and the improved post should allow her to get better positioning. (1) MISS COCO LUCK drops back to a level that is better for her and should get a good following trip near the lead.
Race 4
(4) THE ROCK has improved greatly since being bought privately in September and looks fastest here. (3) JACK REACHER was cleverly-driven last week and surged up the inside late for the win. The new dimension of early speed makes him extra dangerous.
Race 5
(4) AGGRESSIVE took no prisoners last week in a solid effort. He could repeat here despite the step up. (3) LEXUS ROCKY showed some life in the lane last time out and is worth inclusion on Pick 4 tickets at a price. (6) MUSICAL SPELL is another that showed some spark late and could threaten if the late pace collapsed.
Race 6
(5) ARTISTIC MADISON is as sharp as they come and can contend from anywhere it seems. Ride her while she's hot. (2) MS MAC N CHEESE has really been motoring late in her miles and is the one to fend off. (3) MARQUISE DE SARAH drops back to an acceptable class level and is another to consider for the early Pick 4.
Race 7
(4) PRESCOTTS HOPE is ready to fire his best shot and the step up to the top class will add to the price; upset special. (8) NIRVANA SEELSTER was flying late last week and could revert to front-end tactics here which he has used in most of his 2015 wins. (6) ATOMIC MILLION N figures to be closing late for a piece and could pass them all if he is within a couple of lengths turning home.
Race 8
(2) MR LOVER trotted his back 1/2 under 55 seconds last week and is sharp and ready. He needs to be mindful of pace here, though, as it seems as though there are few leavers signed on. (1) MURMUR HANOVER drops and figures to lead the way but will also be a very short price. (5) MYSTERY BET continues to close for good shares from way back but the pace may relegate him to a minor share this time.
Race 9
(3) VEGAS ROCKS made a sharp late move to win last week and has been known to string a few good ones together. We'll give him a slight nod over (9) C L ART MAGIC, who shoots for his eighth win this year vs. 0 losses so far. The former may trip out in the latter's pocket here. (5) LETS WAIT AND SEE showed improvement last time for a trainer that is known for moving horses up quickly. This one is worth a flyer if he goes postward as a big longshot.
Race 10
(1) IL SOGNO DREAM rebounded with a much better effort last weekend racing for the second time in 5 days. He'll be tough to beat from the rail here, too. (2) WHISKEY TAX beat the choice last time then skipped the race on the 31st. He is thriving with Filion driving and is a must-use in the late Pick 4. (5) FLANAGAN MEMORY broke in the Breeders Crown maybe due to the off track. He looks like a contender here but has broke stride several times in a row in the past, too. Tough call.
Race 11
(7) CHEYENNE REIDER paced his own back 1/2 in 53 flat last week signalling he is ready to win. Jamieson needs to get him in range earlier, though. (5) HUNCH MAN was aggressively-driven early last week which is when he does best. He is a big threat here, too. (2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON wasn't great in his return to the circuit but is capable of better and can crack the tri here. (3) PRINCE CLYDE can use a following trip here to get a check. (4) GRIN FOR MONEY is one of the better closers in this race and should make one of the lower rungs of the superfecta or High-5.
[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights every Saturday night. American Nationals from Balmoral highlight this week--Starts at 7:00 p.m.]