Woodbine Harness: Saturday 10/3 Analysis
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 3,5,6,7/1/3,4,5,6/2,3,4/3,5,7 =$28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,4/3,5,7/3,4,6,8/8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,7,9/1,4,6,8/1,3,7/1 = $36
FINAL MOHAWK MEET STATS: 360 - 1131 / $2039.20 BEST BETS: 50 - 101 / $159.90
SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 97 / $162.30
Best Bet: BIG CITY JEWEL (11th)
Spot Play: FOREVER JUST (6th)
Race 1
(5) MUSCLE MATTERS was much sharper last week racing back in five days and motored home to just miss. He hasn't exactly been a win machine but meets a field here he can beat. (6) FLYHAWK EL DURADO has come back to his best form in his past two and should be right there vs. these. (7) ADVERSITY closed powerfully last time and has done well on this track in the past. (3) WILD AND CRAZY GUY won from the 10-hole last time in a similar class and is another to consider for pick 5 tickets.
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Race 2
(1) CARACCI HANOVER drops back into a class where he fits well and should get an aggressive steer here; top call. (4) DADDY WARBUCKS closed strongly last time and likes Woodbine; upset possibility. (3) I SCOOT SAM is another that did very well at the last Woodbine meet and is rounding back to his best form. He should share despite the class rise.
Race 3
(4) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR is in top form, his good tactical speed is a plus here and the step up isn't that great; on top. (6) WHISKEY TAX wasn't beaten far by the best on the continent in the Maple Leaf Trot but may be overbet here based on that factor. He's a contender but beware taking too short of a price. (3) BAGS FOR ALL took a new life's mark off the claim four back and hasn't won since. She's certainly capable and was a frequent winner at the last Woodbine meet.
Race 4
(4) BROOKDALE SHADOW takes a big class drop here and will no doubt try to boss this field. She could do just that, too. (3) HOPE FOR PADDY was just short last time when dropped to this class and likes the long Woodbine stretch. (2) ST LADS PENNY LANE should get a good following trip here and is another to consider for early pick 4 tickets.
Race 5
(5) EXEMPLAR meets a fairly weak field for this class and should get an aggressive drive from Filion. (3) ROCKYS FIRST set a strong pace and kept going last time for a sharp win; don't dismiss lightly. (7) JUSTALITTLEFASTER has been closing quickly every start and will appreciate the long stretch here.
Race 6
(3) FOREVER JUST was visibly flying late last week and just ran out of racetrack. He's a top contender here and could be a square price. (8) VEGAS ROCKS has been incredibly hot since being claimed by Waxman and is the one to beat again. (6) CHEYENNE REIDER loves Woodbine and races best when starting from outer posts. Keep him on your pick 4 tickets.
Race 7
(8) REAL ROCKER was a sharp winner in this same class Tuesday night at Mohawk and will take some beating here. (2) WARAWEE PHOENIX was a good 2nd to a strong winner who was heavily bet that night; using. (1) REGAL BABE ships in and drops in class and could make some noise here.
Race 8
(7) OLE JACK MAGIC has been closing rapidly recently and may be a good price here despite the class drop due to last week's 7th-place finish. He's certainly capable vs. this group. (9) MYSTERY BET is in the best form of his life and needs only an honest pace to chase to be right there on the wire. (1) CHARLIE IS A JOKER isn't a win machine, but has won off similar class drops here and must be considered.
Race 9
(1) ELLIS PARK has been in great from since Waples took over the driving duties and the move inside helps here; slight nod. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER was part of some rapid fractions last week and stuck around for a share. He has done well here in the past. (8) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP was too far back last time and missed the board despite motoring home in 26 2/5. Don't count him out, even from out there.
Race 10
(1) THUNDER SEELSTER returns from a break and meets a field he should handle if ready; top call. (3) LIVE AND LEARN has been racing well and never gets bet. He could add some value to exotics plays. (7) COMPANY MAN was a strong winner a class lower and can contend here, too.
Race 11
(1) BIG CITY JEWEL ships in after winning an Open at Vernon and gets to face non-winners of two based on earnings. He should smoke these. (2) WIN ONE SOON raced decently in the Grassroots Final and should get a good piece of this. (7) NEWBIE has been sharp for several weeks and can race effectively on the lead or closing from the back; exacta factor. (5) SHOE SHINE won easily when left unchallenged last time. A repeat of that trip is highly unlikely. (8) A MARCOU STORY rarely misses a check and is a good one for the bottom of exotic wagers.
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