Woodbine Harness: Monday 4/3 Analysis
Best Bet: IGNITION SWITCH (9th)
Spot Play: LISVINNIE (10th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3/1,2,5/3,5,7/1,2,5,7/3,5,10 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,5,7/3,5,10/2/3,4,7,10 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7,10/2,5,9/3/5,7,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 191 - 715 / $1,139.70 BEST BETS: 29- 66 / $105.50
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 64 / $89.90
Race 1
(3) ST JAMES GATE trotted a serious mile from the 10-hole to win last week. Anything close to a repeat of that mile will make him tough to beat. (2) SOUTH WIN BAX made two moves in the same race then fell short. She would have a better shot racing on the lead or sitting in the pocket. (4) TOUR DE LINDY was a decent third here on Thursday night. He can pass a few of these late again and take a share. (6) DADS HAT set the pace then faltered, also racing three nights ago. He could do better here if he sits a trip.
Race 2
(5) FOUR CARD MAJOR has been doing a lot of hard work in his past few miles and doesn't have a win to show for it. One of these times, he will trip out near the front and get the job done. I'll give him the nod here. (1) AMAZING PERCH took a new lifetime mark knocking off a highly-regarded colt last week, now he curiously comes up tagged here. He is a threat, obviously, but gives off mixed signals. (2) FLYING ORION couldn't get close to a big winner last week, but he maintained his good recent form; using. (3) BAREFOOT BLUEJEANS seems to be a good one to use in the 4th slot based on recent starts.
Race 3
(5) SERGEANT SEELSTER was asked to do too much in the back 1/2 last week and he still may have gotten there if he didn't jump it off in deep stretch. Assuming he will get a better trip this time and stay flat, he can beat these. (3) EXEMPLAR was kept inside throughout last week and that strategy backfired. He can threaten here if he starts better. (7) HONOR ABOVE ALL is another that can threaten here with a quick start to ensure a spot near the front early. (4) DUNVEGAN DON has underperformed so far this year. Perhaps he will perk up here returning to the big track.
Race 4
(5) KAZIMOTO had no chance the way the fractions played out last week. I'll give him another chance here. (7) HEZA BIG DEALER hinted at some ability in his last start of 2016 and he finished well in his qualifier. I'll use him here at a price. (2) IN SPADES was in the same impossible situation as the choice last week, trying to close into a back 1/2 that was paced four seconds quicker than the first one; consider. (1) BADLANDS RISING - a $9K yearling purchase - is worth a look here off a single decent qualifier and going for a barn that sends them ready.
Race 5
(5) BEYOMBO had some good late pace to offer last week, but he was simply too far back to make an impact on the leaders. A better start will put him right there vs. these. (10) STEALTH BOMBER will get bet again here based on breeding and potential, but so far, he hasn't shown he sticks out in this class. I'll use him with the choice in multi-race bets hoping to beat him. (3) BIG BAD BILL finished right with Stealth Bomber last time and ahead of the choice. He is another viable option to the chalk here. (8) DON MCWHITE has picked things up the past few weeks. He could hit the ticket at a price here.
Race 6
(2) MADEWELL HANOVER jumped up with an impressive win off some nondescript qualifiers last week. The class rise here should help the price. I'll stick with him. (6) ESCUELA continues to race well and get good drives from Hensley. Use her in the early Pick 4. (8) BURNIN MONEY takes a big class drop here and he will get bet heavily, but he tends to live up to his name frequently; your call. (3) BIG RICH should take a share racing from close range here.
Race 7
(7) PAR INTENDED was put into action earlier last time and it paid off with a score. He will be a good price here and he could take advantage of a late pace meltdown. (9) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS has been lights-out for several weeks in a row, but none win forever and he faces other speedsters here that could soften him up enough to get nailed late. (3) DINNER AT THE MET is another that may take advantage of a slowing late pace here. (4) CRANKIN IT UP goes for hot connections off the claim but he needs to be careful to not get in a destructive duel early here.
Race 8
(9) ODDS ON AMETHYST is the hottest trotter on the grounds and even post 9 may not be enough to get him beat here, but it could help the price. I'm sticking with him again. (5) ITS HUW YOU KNOW is a sharp and dangerous rival that could topple the choice with some luck. (2) O NARUTAC PERFETTO returned in good form and if he starts his move earlier here, he may pass them all. (8) FINISH LINE isn't out of this, but he seems better used on the bottom when racing in this class.
Race 9
(3) IGNITION SWITCH steps up one level in price after winning off the claim, but, these don't look any tougher and he will be hard to beat here. (4) THINK AGAIN keeps firing home with quick quarters. He is a dangerous foe if he is in striking range at the 3/4. (1) HUGHGETTHECREDIT raced better last time using a closing approach. Look for more of the same here. (7) SIX BEFORE SEVEN is another that can pass some of these late and take a slice.
Race 10
(7) LISVINNIE paced his best mile in a long time last week and looked good on the track. When he is feeling good, he could smoke these. (9) CHIEF TALKALOT flew home last week in his first start over the track. He has shown he can leave better and he should be a big threat here. (5) WHATASHOWINONTARIO won last time he was in this class. Toss him in the late Pick 4 on that angle. (6) BIGTOWN HERO tries for a third time this meet off a decent qualifier. I must see a clean line form him before I'd think of putting him on top. (10) TEAM EDWARD can close to finish on the edges again here.
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