Woodbine Harness: Monday 4/10 Analysis
Best Bet: ODDS ON AMETHYST (2nd)
Spot Play: PICK UP THE TAB (5th)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,7/2/4,5,7,8/5,7,9/5,6 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 5,7,9/5,6/1,2,6/3,4 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,4/1,4/6,7/4,9 = $16
MEET STATS: 208 - 755 / $1,220.00 BEST BETS: 29- 69 / $105.50
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 68 / $92.80)
Race 1
(4) PASSPORT TO ART paced a strong mile on the rim Thursday night in poor weather conditions. If he goes here on short rest, he should be tough to beat. (7) ONLY HALF BAD stole a big third quarter breather last time which made all the difference, but, he has done well at this level and he can race effectively from anywhere; using. (5) SEDONA SEELSTER is obviously improved and likely won't take as long to win his second start as he did to break his maiden. (6) LYONS DELIGHT should be a pace presence then stick around for a slice here.
Race 2
(2) ODDS ON AMETHYST trotting an incredible mile parked the route last time and he still won easily. I can't go against him at this point. (5) FINISH LINE rode the choice's cover but couldn't gain on him late. This exacta has a strong chance of repeating, but it won't pay much. (3) APRIL ROSE is always a threat on lead, but she falls a bit short in the top class; small share predicted. (1) A ROD HALL is the one in here that I could see trotting by the choice late - if he can stay trotting - consider using him if he is a good price.
Race 3
(4) IN SPADES couldn't reach the winner in an improved effort last week and that rival came back three days later to win even easier. Roy sticks here; I'll side with him. (7) KAZIMOTO finished behind the choice, but he was a victim of a slow middle 1/2. He should threaten here if he is asked for more effort earlier in the mile. (8) TYMAL VORTEX exits the same race as the two above and he had no chance the way the race played out. He may get sent this time in a shorter field; beware. (5) HEZA BIG DEALER can pass a few of these and take a share.
Race 4
(9) FOUR CARD MAJOR paced a big uncovered mile last week and dug in late to hold off a charging closer. He should be able to land in the top 5 early here and make a similar move; slight nod. (7) THINK AGAIN set solid splits and sprinted away from his rivals late. He's the main danger to the choice. (5) TRISUN responded well for Filion last week and that driver sticks here; using. (3) HUGHGETTHECREDIT could better this placing if he works out a good trip.
Race 5
(6) PICK UP THE TAB drops in class here and he may be a decent price to boot; top call. (5) WESLYNN DANCER is obviously the one to beat, but it's hard to take a short price on her due to her style of dropping far back early; using but hoping to beat. (2) ROSE RUN REANNA was 2nd to a repeat winner last week. She's not out of this, but the top two are more likely winners. (1) PONDA LEXUS was given a huge breather by Roy last time and he still stopped. A small share is probably his ceiling at this point.
Race 6
(1) SENIOR MARKET should be tough racing on or near the lead here dropping to the lowest class. (6) BURNING SHORE has had two tough trips in this class, now he draws the best post. Things could work out much better for him this time. (2) LISVINNIE exits a race where he couldn't keep up to an insanely-fast pace. He should be more effective here. (4) TEAM EDWARD should close for a smaller share as he does frequently.
Race 7
(3) SERGEANT SEELSTER has turned into a very good horse this year and he comes off an easy win and may offer a better price here. (4) TONY SOPRANO will no doubt be overbet here coming off a powerful qualifying win to start his four-year-old season. He is very capable, but the choice is no slouch and will take beating here. (6) WILD AND CRAZY GUY steps back up off an easy win vs. much weaker, but he can threaten here. (1) KEEGAN HO appeared on the scene quickly at the end of his most recent mile. He is one to consider for vertical bets here.
Race 8
(4) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER goes back into Cullen's barn here. Expect a big speed try. (1) LET EM BOUNCE comes off a sharp win out of town and he looks like one of few threats to the choice. (5) VITAL SIGN is capable of better if he can stay pacing this time.
Race 9
(6) O NARUTAC PERFETTO's potent closing kick was compromised last week in the top class because the pace accelerated noticeably in the final 1/4. This group should be more to his liking. (7) CASH FOR GOLD drops and won in this class three starts back. He is the danger. (3) MAJOR ATHENS raced well in this class last time, but if the top two get reasonable trips, the rest are likely racing for third. (4) SMOOTHER RIDE can get out into the flow here and stay for a share.
Race 10
(4) DON MCWHITE may be overbet off his quick final 1/4 last week, but he fits well here and he can beat these with a decent trip and more aggressive drive. (9) LATE NIGHT faces much easier here. Notice he won last time he raced in a similar class on March 13th; using. (1) NEXT THING SMOKEN can follow along near the front here and stick around for a share. (8) WESTERN EXPRESSION shares regularly. He can make the Tri or Super in this field. (3) KINMUNDYS STRIKER was fried early last week. He can be much closer vs. these.
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