Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/20 Analysis
Best Bet: HUGHGETTHECREDIT (5th)
Spot Play: SERGEANT SEELSTER (1st)
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,4,5,7/7,8/2,3,5/2,3,8/6 = $$14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,8/6/3,6,8/6,7,9 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 6,7,9/7/2,3,4/3,4,7 = $27
MEET STATS: 164 - 635 / $1,020.40 BEST BETS: 26 - 59 / $94.00
SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 56 / $86.20
Race 1
(5) SERGEANT SEELSTER gets Henry back after he had a test drive last week from an outer post following a 3-week break. Expect a much more aggressive approach here. (2) P L JILL made a big move to the front last week and almost lasted. She should get a bit easier trip here starting from the inside and she is a big threat. (4) LABATT HANOVER steps up off a sharp win; using. (7) HONOR ABOVE ALL converted a sweet trip into a win last week but a similar trip is unlikely here; small share predicted.
Race 2
(7) REAL ROCKER and (8) CRANKIN IT UP are the most likely winners here on the class drop. I'll give a slight edge to the former based on the hotter connections at the moment. (4) DINNER AT THE MET raced well off the claim, but he couldn't touch the class-dropping winner last time. A similar scenario looms here. (1) VEROI BAYAMA can take a share off a following trip here.
Race 3
(3) ODDS ON AMETHYST couldn't be any better, coming off a Canadian season's record win last week. The best part is he is usually a square price. I'll stick with him here. (2) A ROD HALL is another in here that has never been better. You have to use him in the Pick 5. (5) ETRUSCAN HANOVER was right there last time and can win this with the right trip. (7) CATCH THE DREAM is yet another that is at the top of his form cycle that should contend here in a race with several possibilities.
Race 4
(3) FANCOURT went a pretty big trip last week, making two moves and falling just short. He gets his regular driver back here; top call. (8) SOUTHWIND MONTY adds Lasix here after tiring only late last time; using. (2) WINDSUN GOTHAM can threaten if he leaves a bit harder tonight, which is likely. (9) SHARKY SHARK is fast enough to compete here, but, two stale dates in a row make him very risky.
Race 5
(6) HUGHGETTHECREDIT faces much easier here. He should beat these and get claimed. (10) EAST END was a winner in this class after an eventful trip last week. The post is no bargain here, but, he fits and can contend. (9) THINK AGAIN has raced well for Weller, but he is still showing win-shy tendencies; small share predicted. (4) SIX BEFORE SEVEN should close for a smaller slice this time.
Race 6
(3) TOUR DE LINDY couldn't close into a quickening late pace last week. He should get put into this race earlier; another chance. (6) NOON HOUR exits the same race as the choice and he closed quickly while passing horses; using. (8) YOU CANT AFFORD ME raced decently near the front in the same race as the two above. This race will likely come down to trip. (9) IGOCRAZY WITHOUT U is stuck on one win from 31 starts, but she keeps grabbing shares and she can take another here.
Race 7
(7) AVATARTIST drops to the lowest conditioned class here and he should get sent early; down the road. (9) BURNING SHORE raced well from the worst post last time and a similar effort would be no surprise here. (6) WEATHERLY almost chased down a loose leader here Thursday night. He's in with a good shot here if he goes. (3) IM THE PIED PIPER drops and can share here.
Race 8
(7) NASCAR SEELSTER was motoring late in his opener and he is a likely winner here at a very short price. (2) CASIMIR PATRIOT can be much closer early here which makes him a good one to use underneath at a price. (4) SEDONA SEELSTER is racing well, but the long losing streak continues; another small share is likely here. (1) SPORTING LIFE should be passing many of these down the lane to take a share.
Race 9
(2) ITS HUW YOU KNOW steps up off a sharp win and he should be prominent throughout here vs. these. (4) CASH FOR GOLD couldn't reach the choice, but, there is more early speed in here and this race could set up for him. (3) CHARLIE IS A JOKER moved up too high last time. He has a shot here, but his best trip is on an easy lead and that scenario seems unlikely here. (1) OLYMPIC SON should follow along near the front and stay for a share.
Race 10
(3) FLYIN ORION will be very tough to beat if he duplicates last week's mile. (7) BAREFOOT BLUEJEANS made a bold move that he couldn't sustain last week while making his first start of the year vs. the choice. He could go closer here. (4) FOUR CARD MAJOR was no match for the choice last week but he did a lot of the work early in the mile. He should be in the money again here. (1) FUTOMAKI is a solid option for the bottom of vertical wagers here. (10) TRISUN is always going forward during his miles; consider at a price for exotics.
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