Woodbine handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 26

Canadian International trends for handicappers

It has been 40 years since the great Secretariat capped his career with a decisive victory here in the Canadian International. There have been many more memorable winners since then, and Sunday’s $1 million renewal could have a rare Woodbine-based favorite, the diminutive 7-year-old Forte Dei Marmi. Only two favorites have won the Grade 1 fixture since 2000.

Joshua Tree, who has been as successful as any horse in the International, is back for another go on Sunday. He won it last year and in 2010, and was a troubled second in 2011. Since the International was moved to the turf in 1958, he is one of three two-time winners of the race, along with George Royal and Majesty’s Prince.

There have been nine European-trained winners of the International since 2000. The other four winners were from the United States, but three of them had their final prep for the 12-furlong marathon at Woodbine. Two of them had just competed in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf, which Forte Dei Marmi won on Sept. 15 over Perfect Timber.

Stalkers have been dominant since 2000, winning eight times. Four closers found the mark during that time. Joshua Tree became just the second wire-to-wire winner since 1958 last year, when he set a pokey pace before holding off a troubled Dandino to prevail by a half-length.

The towering 4-year-old Irish Mission will try to become 10th filly or mare to win the International. Seven of them were 4, most notably Dahlia, All Along, and the 2011 winner, Sarah Lynx.

Overall, 4-year-olds have been the most successful in the race, scoring 26 times since 1958. Thirteen 3-year-olds prevailed, and 11 5-year-olds found the mark during that time.

Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield has never won the International. Three of his 16 starters ran second, and he sent out Forte Dei Marmi to finish a good third last year.

Attfield also trains the late-blooming 4-year-old Perfect Timber, who wound up sixth behind Forte Dei Marmi in the Grade 2 Sky Classic Stakes here in his next-to-last outing Aug. 18.

“The [slow] pace wasn’t suitable for him,” Attfield said. “He ran a good race, but he can’t quicken the way Forte Dei Marmi can. He’s a huge horse who needed lots of time. Forte Dei Marmi is like a little terrier.”

New York-based trainer Bill Mott has shipped in several live runners over the years, including Al Khali and the 1995 victor, Lassigny. On Sunday, he sends out the former European runner Slumber, who was a charging fourth behind Little Mike in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont Sept. 28.

E.P. Taylor facts

The Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes, the traditional supporting feature on Canadian International Day, is sometimes thought of as a race dominated by European fillies and mares. However, an examination of the last 10 winners of the 10-furlong grass event revealed that Europeans won it just five times (four of them hailed from France). Two local runners and three American shippers were the other winners.

Favorites won three of the last 10 editions of the Taylor. All three were from across the pond.

There has been one wire-to-wire winner of the Taylor since 2003. Two stalkers and five closers were victorious during that time.

Track trends

The inside was preferred on Oct. 19, when five of the nine Polytrack winners rode the rail to victory. Horses who benefited from the bias included Ease On Bai, Tevez, Bantee, Madame G, Victory Mast, Cajun Kiss, Sneaky Money, Tequilamockingbird, and longshot Flying Echo, who prevailed in the front-end battle and the war in the 10th.

Horses who made an impact racing on the outside included winners Quasar Power, Evangeline’s Hope, Golden Ridge, and Sky High Lady, along with Tonight We Dance, Born to Be Queen, and Silent Yet Deadly.