Woodbine handicapping roundup: Week of Oct. 19

Second time’s the charm

Some Woodbine trainers are much more prolific the second time out than the first. They simply don’t wind up their horses before they debut, allowing them to develop at their own pace.

Brian Lynch is a prime example. The personable Aussie has always been effective second time out, an angle that has lost some of its value over the years, judging by the modest return on investment compared with his good win percentage with maiden second-timers.
Lynch said nothing surprises him when his runners debut.

“They can do anything,” Lynch said. “Even when they train great, some of them can find ways to get beat. If they’re good enough, they’ll go ahead and reveal themselves. I don’t crank on them too hard to get them ready the first time. I’m quite happy to get an evaluation on them. The second time, I try to fine-tune them a little bit.”

When Lynch clicks with a first-timer, the horse could have stakes potential. He won at first asking in 2007 with the Milwaukee Brew filly Ginger Brew, the 2008 Woodbine Oaks winner and Canadian champion 3-year-old filly. One of his current charges to keep an eye on is another daughter of Milwaukee Brew, the unbeaten Flipcup, who overcame a tardy start to land her Sept. 14 opener. Flipcup, a rare Ontario-sired filly bred in New York, captured an Ontario-sired allowance easily here Oct. 11.

Misleading turf condition

It rained steadily here last Sunday, beginning around the third race. The turf course was labeled “firm” for the fifth race, a six-furlong entry-level allowance won by Lennon in 1:10.34, which was slower than the norm for that level.

By the eighth race, the Grade 1 Nearctic Stakes, the course was listed as “good” but should have been downgraded to “yielding.” Phil’s Dream scored comfortably in the six-furlong Nearctic in a slow 1:10.83, which was 0.49 seconds slower than Lennon’s clocking.

When the Victoriana Stakes was run here July 31, the course was labeled “firm,” even after steady rainfall leading up to that fourth race on a Wednesday night card. Because of the slick surface, several contenders failed to make an impact in the Ontario-sired stakes, non-efforts that are best forgiven.

Direct comparisons

This is the time of year when handicappers must size up the chances of horses exiting two divisions of a maiden race for 2-year-olds run on the same day. Ida Bambina won the faster split of an Ontario-sired maiden special for fillies Oct. 12 in her fifth start. Trained by Mike De Paulo, she completed six furlongs in 1:11.44, which was 0.26 seconds faster than Splashy Gizmo’s time in the other split one race prior.

“She’s been frustrating,” De Paulo said. “She worked dynamite, and I thought she was going to be a good horse. I thought she might go long, but she didn’t seem to want to go two turns. She had plenty of time going into her last race, and we put the blinkers back on.”
In spite of her slower clocking, Splashy Gizmo might have more upside than Ida Bambina because it was just her third start. Ida Bambina was turning back from a route and probably was the fitter of the two.

In the split of a male 2-year-old Ontario-sired maiden special Oct. 13, Total Accounting ran three-quarters in 1:11.46. It was significantly faster than the debuting Hope for Fame’s time of 1:12.12 in the previous race.

Track trends

Speed was preferred on the Polytrack on Oct. 14. Among the seven races run over the surface, five front-runners were victorious, one stalker got the job done, and a closer prevailed in one of the two routes. Horses worth following who raced against the bias included Secure the Door, Trini Boss, Mays Treasuretrove, D’wildcat Gold, Awfully Sinful, and Chairman Germany. Run Wild was dropping by half in value, so it wasn’t surprising to see her overcome traffic problems to score from off the pace in the fifth.