Woodbine handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 9

Down the stretch

Anything can happen during the waning days of this marathon meet, which is scheduled to conclude Dec. 15. Most of the remaining cards will have lots of cheap races with full fields.

Freshness won’t necessarily be an asset, as many horses will run back on short rest, sometimes successfully. Sharp horses moving up in class may be the most likely to turn the trick. At the end of the 2009 meet, trainer John Calhoun sent out Maple Tints to win back-to-back Ontario-sired allowance routes at 15-1 just a week apart.

Trainers who haven’t won a race all year are eligible to get off the duck. Some longtime maidens will break through, mainly due to attrition.
Those accustomed to wagering $1 pick fours might be better off playing in 20-cent increments in order to cover more bases in the races that seem inscrutable.

Fort Erie runners will populate the low-end claimers. Some Fort Erie ex-patriots will have good dirt form and relatively high Beyer Speed Figures, which don’t necessarily transfer over to the Polytrack very well.

Shippers from Presque Isle Downs, which has a synthetic Tapeta surface, have not fared well here this fall, for the most part. Meadow Magic did come from there to wire $32,000 opposition Oct. 11, but he was a flat fourth as the favorite in a $40,000 claimer last Saturday.
respect restricted stakes

One local trend in the past few years is that numerous restricted 2-year-old stakes have been as strong as many open stakes. Uncaptured, last year’s Canadian Horse of the Year and champion 2-year-old, notched three Woodbine stakes wins, two of which were in restricted company.

The Grade 2 Natalma has been the best juvenile filly stakes here this decade, but this year’s edition Sept. 14 was below par. The one-mile turf event, which is a Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In qualifier, has produced just one subsequent winner, Madly Truly, who won an ordinary renewal of the Grade 3 Mazarine.

Last Saturday’s $250,800 Princess Elizabeth Stakes, for Canadian-bred fillies, was surprisingly quick, and it could end up being a key race. Longshots Paladin Bay and Lexie Lou, two offspring of Ontario stamina sire Sligo Bay, battled to the wire, and they finished far ahead of the others. Paladin Bay prevailed by a length while covering 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.61. She earned a solid 84 Beyer, which was the highest for a Princess Elizabeth winner since Catch the Thrill got a 90 Beyer in 2006.

Pace part of equation

The race shape of the Sept. 29 Classy ’n Smart Stakes was slow early and slow late. Moonlit Beauty set a sleepy pace en route to a comfortable score in the restricted 1 1/16-mile route, earning just a 71 Beyer, but was it truly a weak race? Judging by the fact that it has yielded three next-out winners, it certainly wasn’t.

Unlike in many slow-paced dirt routes, horses who walk the dog on the lead going long on Polytrack rarely draw off to win by a large margin, which is why they can earn a relatively low Beyer. Because of the pedestrian pace, one could have upgraded the aforementioned Beyer by 10 points to 81, a number that would have put the classy Moonlit Beauty among the protagonists in the Grade 3 Maple Leaf Stakes last Saturday. She ended up winning the 10-furlong Maple Leaf by daylight, returning a fat $53.10 to win.

Track trends

Closers on the outside have flourished on recent Wednesday evening cards, a trend that could continue throughout the fall.

On Wednesday, Oct. 30, Clear March set slow fractions along the rail and kept on going, becoming the lone inside winner on the eight-race program. Other horses worth following who saved ground while showing speed against the grain of the apparent bias included Gas N Dash, Strangrthanfiction, Muttak Bay, and Silver Bolt.