Woodbine handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 30
TOP SPRINTERS IN ACTION THIS WEEKEND
Many of the leading sprinters on the grounds will be in action this weekend, mainly in the Grade 2, $150,000 Kennedy Road Stakes on Saturday. Phil’s Dream has taken Woodbine by storm this year and will be favored in six-furlong Kennedy Road.
Phil’s Dream has won 7 of 9 outings at the meet. He is riding the wave of a four-race win streak, with the highlight a commanding victory in the Grade 1 Nearctic on the grass.
“He’s in good order,” said owner-trainer Paul Buttigieg, who sent the 5-year-old gelding out for two impressive works in recent weeks. “When he went five-eighths in 1:00.80 the other day, he did it so easily. He was just galloping.”
Essence Hit Man, the six-furlong Polytrack record holder, has been idle since winning the Grade 3 Bold Venture Stakes on July 17 and has obviously had some issues. The speedy chestnut was Canada’s champion male sprinter in 2011 and 2012.
Bear Tough Tiger, last year’s Kennedy Road victor, is stepping up off a win and a hefty $62,500 claim by trainer Sid Attard.
Bear Tough Tiger’s previous trainer, Reade Baker, entered Bear No Joke, Fatal Bullet, and Go Blue Or Go Home.
The aptly named Youcan’tcatchme is the one to beat in Sunday’s Grade 2, $150,000 Bessarabian, a seven-furlong tilt for fillies and mares. She is the leading candidate for Canadian champion female sprinter honors this year on the strength of her record of three wins and a second in four starts, all in stakes.
Dene Court could be the main threat to Youcan’tcatchme, although she may prefer the turf over the Polytrack. Both 4-year-old fillies possess tactical speed, which makes it an intriguing matchup strategically.
CASSE CUTBACKS
Statistical handicapping guru Jim Mazur once coined the phrase “Pletcher stretcher” to describe trainer Todd Pletcher’s prowess with runners stretching out from a sprint to a route.
On the other hand, trainer Mark Casse’s numbers with horses turning back in distance are excellent. His latest winner to fit the bill was Jagger M, who returned a generous $9.70 in his off-the-pace tally in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance here last Saturday.
Casse has a 22 percent strike rate with 112 route-to-sprint starters since the beginning of 2012, but are “Casse cutbacks” worth following in the long run?
“I think it’s just a coincidence,” Casse said. “Sometimes, I look at my statistics and wonder. A couple of years ago, we won more turf races among the top 10 trainers than all the others combined. The next year, we didn’t win any. It’s just what you have. In his defense, Jagger M had a horrid trip [the start before]. We had two options for him: six and a half or nine furlongs. It looked like seven furlongs is his best game, so we just backed him up.”
TRACK TRENDS
Woodbine reported that 6,000 gallons of mineral oil was added to the Polytrack on Thursday, Nov. 21, to help the surface from balling up during the colder weather.
The track seemed to play fair on Nov. 22 until later in the afternoon. Speed horses dominated the last three races, which were won by two front-runners and a stalking favorite, who attended a rapid pace before assuming command. Horses who made up ground during that time included first-time starter Kitten’s Magic, professional maiden Synergist, and the slow-starting comebacker Mauna Kea.
On Nov. 23, here was a buzz in the grandstand after front-runners swept the first three races on the card. Just prior to the fourth, I ran into a panicked trainer who wasn’t sure what to do with his favorite in that race. That filly, who had done her best running from a stalking position, ended up dueling for the lead with two others before they all faded in the stretch. Not surprisingly, the track played fair throughout the remainder of the card, possibly due to an overreaction to the perceived speed bias. It was a brutally cold day with a gusting west wind that had many riders scurrying back to the jockeys’ room between races to warm up.