Woodbine DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: November 3, 2013

Ontario Fashion Stakes (Race 8, 4:26 ET)

The Grade 3, $150,000 Ontario Fashion at Woodbine drew just six horses and GOLDSTRYKE GLORY is going to be tough to catch in the six-furlong sprint for fillies and mares running over Polytrack.

The speedy 3-year-old filly GOLDSTRYKE GLORY was getting a bit late when she won the $102K Apelia Oct. 2 but she was the only horse on the eight-race Wednesday-night card that was able to carry her speed the whole way. It was her third straight front-running win and considering she was fighting a bias it was a pretty powerful performance. She set wicked fractions when she cruised to a 7 1/2 length romp in the Inglorious and once again she is clearly the one they are going to have to catch. This is her first time running in a Graded race but she overcame a bias to beat YOUCAN’TCATCHME and ACTING NAUGHTY in the Apelia and they are the only graded winners in the field. She won’t be much of a price but it is hard to take a stand against her.

SHRINKING VIOLET, the other 3-year-old in the race, owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field but it came on turf in a $40K optional race at Del Mar July 26. The horse that she beat won a $40K optional race at Del Mar with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start at Del Mar. SHRINKING VIOLET came back with another strong effort in a $96K allowance race at Kentucky Downs but the horse she beat was coming off a win in a $16K claiming race at Presque Isle Downs so it wasn’t a great field. This is clearly a tougher spot but she’s a sharp horse right now and the only time she ran on Polytrack she romped by nine lengths in a $30K claimer at Keeneland last year so she shouldn’t mind the surface switch. She’s also been training nicely at Keeneland leading up to this. She is capable of stalking and if YOUCAN’TCATCHME can put enough pressure on GOLDSTRYKE GLORY she might be able to pick up the pieces. That is a big if, though. The past five years Ward has a 24% percent strike rate at Woodbine and is 3/22 in stakes races.

YOUCAN’TCATCHME used her good speed to win two of her three starts this year including the Grade 3 Seaway but she couldn’t keep up with GOLDSTRYKE GLORY in the Apelia and Stein was urging her early. Reportedly she came down with a virus so maybe she wasn’t at her best. She has never posted the kind of fractions GOLDSTRYKE GLORY is capable of, however, and once again it looks like she’ll be chasing the speedy 3-year-old filly again.

ACTING NAUGHY won the Grade 3 Whimsical in her first start this year but she couldn’t keep up to YOUCAN’TCATCHME in the Etobicoke and Grade 3 Seaway and she finished behind both GODSTRYKE GLORY and YOUCAN’TCATCHME in the Apelia. Hard to see her winning this but there is a chance she could get up for third.

BEAR’S GEM didn’t fire as the chalk in the $125K Classy ‘N Smart but she did win five straight sprints on Poly before going unplaced on the turf in the $125K Zadracarta. She should appreciate the move back to a sprint but not the company she is facing and she has never posted a Beyer Speed Figure in the 80’s. LEMON SPLASH looks overmatched.

If the track is playing fair it is going to be hard to beat an extremely sharp GOLDSTRYKE GLORY. She won’t be much of a price but it is hard to go against her. We’re going to key her on top to SHRINKING VIOLET and YOUCAN’TCATCHME in the exotics. We’ll also build a ticket around her in the late Pick 4.