Woodbine DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: November 2, 2013

Maple Leaf Stakes (Race 9, 5:23 ET)

The Grade 3, $150,000 Maple Leaf at Woodbine Saturday will be contested over a mile and a quarter on Polytrack and none of the nine fillies and mares entered has a win at the distance. DIXIE STRIKE, however, has come close and she is the only Graded winner in the field.

DIXIE STRIKE beat the boys going 1 3/16 miles in the restricted Prince of Wales last year and she also ran a big race when she finished third in the Queen’s Plate going this distance. She finished a dull seventh in this race last year but she was probably over the top after a long and successful season that began with a win in the $150K Florida Oaks in February. She also went into the Maple Leaf last year off of a third to multiple Grade 1 winners My Miss Aurelia and Questing in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx and the race may have taken a lot out of her. This year she is a fresh horse and this will be the third start of her current form cycle which could mean a peak performance. She had a perfect prep in a 1 1/16 miles $62K optional claiming race and although she won by just a half-length, she went five-wide around both turns and she never looked like losing once she made the lead mid-stretch. It is also encouraging to see Husbands opt to ride her over her stablemate, SKY HIGH LADY, who has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. The past five years their trainer, Mark Casse, has a 25% strike rate in Grade 3 races at Woodbine.

AND WHY NOT is still eligible for a first-level allowance race but next to Dixie Strike she has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance and she earned it chasing Royal Delta in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap July 20. Once again she was overmatched by Princess of Sylmar and Royal Delta in her last start and she is going to appreciate the significantly easier company she is facing here. She came close to winning the Grade 3 Obeah at Delaware in June so she fits in the class department. The only time she ran over Poly was in the Grade 1 Alcibiades won by $1.6 million Stephanie’s Kitten so it is hard to say if she’ll handle the surface or not. If she can she figures to be a major player.

SKY HIGH LADY has improved dramatically in her last three starts and could be coming up to a peak performance. Her improvement started with a second going a 1 1/2 miles on turf in the $101K Flaming Page August 14 and she came back with a sharp win on turf again in an allowance race at Kentucky Downs. She saved her best for her latest race in the washed-off $105K River Memories, though. She not only got pinched off at the start, she also had to wait for room at the top of the stretch. She finished full of run when Husbands wheeled her out to the middle of the track to win going away and she is obviously a serious threat to win this if she continues to move forward.

FINAL ESCROW is also on a roll with back-to-back wins on the turf at Monmouth and Delaware Park and while this will be her first time racing on a synthetic surface she trains over Tapeta at Fair Hill and has a solid set of works leading up to her first start here. This is a big step up after winning a restricted stakes at Delaware but she certainly has the pedigree to go this far and the past five years her trainer has an 18% strike rate with horses coming back between 31-60 days. She also easily handled AND WHY NOT when they met in an allowance race last year at Delaware.

MOONLIT BEAUTY took them a long way in this race last year and once again looks like the one they’ll have to catch. Similar to last year she is coming into the Maple Leaf off a win in the Classy ‘N Smart but she seems to have lost a step as a 7-year-old and should be under pressure from LOGAN’S PEAK right from the start. She is also picking up five pounds off of her win.

PURE BLUE SKY, third in the Flaming Page, is back to her best surface and could work her way into the exotics at what should be a big price.

RECONNECT isn’t the most consistent horse around but she should handle the distance and may have bounced in the Classy ‘N Smart. She’s another possibility for the bottom half of the exotics.

Casse appears to have the millionaire DIXIE STRIKE primed for a big effort and we’re going to key her on top to FINAL ESCROW, AND WHY NOT, and SKY HIGH LADY in the exotics.