Woodbine DRF Plus Autumn Stakes Analysis: Nov. 15, 2013

Autumn Stakes, Race 8, 4:26 ET

The Grade 2 Autumn for 3-year-olds and up was canceled at Woodbine last Sunday and has been rescheduled for Friday, Nov. 15. They didn’t redraw the 1 1/16-mile race, and other than easy breezes by ALPHA BETTOR, ULTIMATE DESTINY, and PENDER HARBOUR nothing has really changed.

In what appears to be a wide-open event, we’re going to give the edge to ULTIMATE DESTINY who hasn’t finished worse than second in any of his seven starts at the meet. All four of his wins came with Eurico Rosa Da Silva riding and Da Silva will be aboard Sunday. In his only loss with Da Silva riding ULTIMATE DESTINY finished second to Phil’s Dream who won his next two starts in stakes races including the Grade 1 Nearctic. ULTIMATE DESTINY is also versatile and with an honest pace expected Da Silva will likely put him into a stalking position early. It won’t hurt that is he shedding five pounds off of his win over Pender Harbour in the washed off $125K Bounty Lawless Oct. 20.

JAMES STREET won this race last year and it won’t surprise anyone if he repeated. He came off a two-month layoff to win the Grade 3 Durham Cup Oct. 6 and last year he finished third in the Durham Cup prior to his win. His trainer is winning races at a 27% clip at the meet and with three solid works it looks like Carroll has JAMES STREET primed for another big effort. The shape of the race should also work in his favor.

ALPHA BETTOR won’t mind the slightly shorter distance after giving it up late to James Street in 1 1/8 miles Durham Cup. He reportedly didn’t handle Tapeta when he finished 10th in the Prisque Isle Mile but he’s been solid running over Poly at Woodbine. He pushed the 1-5 favorite Delagation, who finished last, through honest splits in the Durham Cup but he doesn’t need to be that close and there is other potential speed in this field.

OCCASIONAL VIEW makes his first start since being claimed by Kenneth McPeek who doesn’t reach in very often but three of the last eight he haltered came back to win their first start for him. McPeek also has solid stats with horses going from a sprint to a route. The only time OCCASIONAL VIEW went around two turns he finished a close fourth in the Presque Isle Mile so he could be questionable at the distance. Nonetheless, his dam is a half-sister to Archer’s Bay who won the Queen’s Plate going 1 1/4 miles so there is plenty of stamina in the family. He also came back with a sharp work at Keeneland following his win in a $100K optional race. McPeek’s strong stats in all the relevant categories make him in interesting possibility at what should be a decent price.

The millionaire PENDER HARBOUR appears to be coming up to a peak effort but he hasn’t won this year and it is interesting to see Campbell abandon him to ride AWESOME OVERTURE. Nonetheless, his new rider is certainly capable and the only time she rode him he finished third in the Queen’s Plate. He is another one that is versatile and is certainly capable of winning this if he brings his best stuff.

The lightly-raced AWESOME OVERTURE showed he can run a big race without being involved early in the Durham Cup. He broke a half-step slow it looked like he might win the race when he made a strong move going into the stretch. He actually got past ALPHA BETTOR but couldn’t sustain his bid. At the least it was a good learning experience and he’s out of a Grade 3 winning mare so there could be some upside potential and he shouldn’t mind the slightly shorter distance.

MEZZANO earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure going this distance the only time he ran over Polytrack at Keeneland and could be dangerous if he clears early. It wouldn’t be that big of a shock if he broke on top and never looked back. As mentioned earlier this is a wide-open event with many possibilities but we like the way the race shapes up for ULTIMATE DESTINY so we’re going to key him on top in the exotics with ALPHA BETTOR, JAMES STREET and OCCASIONAL VIEW as the main horses underneath. We’ll probably go with all four in the Pick 4 and possibly a couple of others if we can find a solid single to key them with.