Wise Dan pace scenario murky, but Ottoman Fleet clear favorite

Ottoman Fleet looks for a second consecutive graded stakes win at Churchill Downs as the heavy morning-line favorite in the Grade 2, $500,000 Wise Dan, one of three turf stakes on Saturday’s card.

After a bobbling start and slow pace compromised Ottoman Fleet’s repeat bid in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy in New York and he finished second, the 5-year-old gelding was able to track a more honest pace – although still not as quick as trainer Charlie Appleby would have liked – in the Grade 3 Arlington on June 1 at Churchill. Keen early under Flavien Prat, Ottoman Fleet took over near the furlong grounds, then held off Chasing the Crown, who he faces again here, to win by a length.

The Arlington “was a slowly run affair, whereas they might hopefully go a better gallop in the Wise Dan,” Appleby said post race.

Ottoman Fleet, even money on the Wise Dan’s morning line, drew post 2 in the field of six. Prat said Ottoman Fleet “loses focus in front,” and his instructions from Appleby’s team have been to keep the gelding covered up and give him a target. Pace development will be crucial, as many in the field have a similar style and want to sit just off the leader.

The most likely candidates to take initiative, having pressed the pace closely or led when required in past outings, appear to be Win for the Money and comebacking Grade 1 winner Exaulted. Win for the Money is coming off an impressive minor stakes win at Gulfstream Park in which he earned this field’s top last-out Beyer Speed Figure, a 102.

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Exaulted won four straight races when moved to turf last year by Peter Eurton, highlighted by the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. He finished second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile in September and was a vet scratch the week of the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Multiple stakes winner Strong Tide cuts back to 1 1/16 miles, a distance at which he has won. He is multiple graded stakes-placed in marathon turf races, including, most recently, a good effort in the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill, in which he finished second to Sugoi, who got away with an easy pace.

Sugoi came back to run second to the classy Webslinger in the Chorleywood, while third-place The Grey Wizard won the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup.

“He ran very good,” said Mike Lauer, Strong Tide’s trainer. “I didn’t expect [Sugoi] to have the lead the whole way, but I don’t think anybody else did, either.”

Strong Tide and Emmanuel Esquivel drew the rail. Lauer hopes they will break cleanly, then “sit back and cut the corner.”

Chasing the Crown, whose only loss at Churchill was a runner-up effort in the Arlington, and Johny’s Fireball, coming off an allowance/optional-claiming win here, complete the field.

American Derby

In the $250,000 American Derby for 3-year-olds on the turf, Lagynos looks to break through after two stakes placings this meet. He was third in the Grade 2 American Turf on Derby Day, then second in the Audubon on June 1. Neither winner of those respective races runs back here, but Lagynos faces some new challenges.

First World War captured the Grade 3 Penn Mile under Frankie Dettori, who remains in the irons here. American Turf winner Trikari was third at Penn National.

In his two most recent starts, First World War came from off the pace after troubled trips. However, he has used more forward tactics successfully in the past, such as when he won the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy.

First World War may find himself looking at Green Light early in this eight-horse field. Well drawn on the rail for his stakes debut, Green Light is coming off a runaway maiden win last month at Churchill in which he disputed the pace, took over, and drew off by 10 1/4 lengths, earning the field’s top last-out Beyer.

A realistic pace in the 1 1/16-mile American Derby would suit Lagynos, as well as Grade 2 winner Agate Road, who is adding blinkers.

Tepin Stakes

Pipsy, coming off a win in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in her U.S. debut, is the lukewarm morning-line favorite for the American Derby’s sister race, the $250,000 Tepin.

Pipsy, who had a solid 2-year-old campaign in Ireland before being purchased in December and coming to trainer William Walden, became anxious in the starting gate at Aqueduct, and broke in the air. She then got a strong pace to close into in the six-furlong race.

Walden says the filly, who was more in touch in her races in Ireland, will “definitely be forwardly placed at a mile,” the distance of the Tepin.

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Just Better will likely be forwardly placed after breaking from the outside in the field of 11. She is coming off a strong effort in her stakes debut, in which she was second to the classy She Feels Pretty in the Hilltop at Pimlico.

Poolside With Slim has shown the ability to adjust tactically to the pace, as she did winning the Penn Oaks last time out. Dettori, who rode Poolside With Slim and Just Better in their most recent outings, stays with the Just Better, while Tyler Gafflione picks up the mount on Poolside With Slim.

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