Winners coming from all over in early Kentucky Derby Day races

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – We’re eight races into this Kentucky Derby card and have just seen Obligatory blast last to first to win the Derby City Distaff, her first Grade 1.

Three races ago in the Knicks Go Stakes, impossible (to me) winner Three Technique also closed from far back to win another one-turn dirt race. Biased main track? Hardly. In race 7, Jack Christopher pressed Pappacap, took over in upper stretch, and that pair ran one-two, with horses racing from off the pace making no late headway whatsoever. Creative Minister won race 4, a two-turn dirt contest, from a stalking position, while the day’s first two dirt races, both at one turn, went to pace pressers. You’d have to conclude the Churchill main track at this stage is playing fair.

Three of the dirt races were run at one mile, and 3-year-old Jack Christopher, making his first start since October, was fastest among them clocking 1:34.81. Three Technique went 1:35.48 while race 1, a mere 3-year-old maiden race, was won in 1:35.50. You could make a case based on those times that the surface has slowed through the afternoon.

Creative Minister, a tough-trip debut loser at Gulfstream, looked good winning a maiden route at Keeneland and even better beating winners in race 4, which he finished off with verve. Looks like a stakes horse.

I continue to believe that the inside part of the turf course is meaningfully worse than outside paths, and I’m not the only one as the riders here have started avoiding the rail. This goes back to the Friday grass races, which had a distinctly outside flow, and both winners today rallied wide. I wouldn’t want a grass front-runner right now and unfortunately liked Tribhuvan in the Turf Classic.

Speak of the Devil would have won the Distaff Turf Mile regardless of any kind of bias. The 5-year-old French import unleashed a breathtaking turn of foot past the half-mile pole after lagging in last behind a slow 49.70-second half-mile pace. She caught her Chad Brown-trained pace-setting leader In Italian at the quarter pole and won by nearly three lengths. Speak of the Devil got her last quarter in 22.87 and her final half in not much more than 46 seconds. She was a fine horse in France but the way she ran this tight turn today suggests American style racing could suit her much better than European, and this performance made the mare look like a Breeder’ Cup Mile candidate.

Obligatory also was good today, though she did get some serious and unexpected pace help when Just One Time, who won the Grade 1 Madison last month at Keeneland coming from last, broke sharply and led the Derby City Distaff. None of the top finishers from the Madison ran to form (fifth-place Four Graces was second), while Obligatory last had raced March 16. Something to think about next year.

For now, let’s think Derby odds: Epicenter and Taiba have been vying for favoritism all day and with $15.1 million in the pool, both were 5-1, Epicenter narrowly favored. Messier is, to me, a surprisingly low 6-1, while Zandon, the favorite on more than one morning line, is 7-1 and Mo Donegal 8-1.