There’s little question Chad Brown is winning the First Lady Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. Hardly a hot take. Brown has sent out the First Lady winner six times and, remarkably, has won the last five renewals. He has last year’s winner, odds-on morning-line favorite In Italian, and another high-class performer in Whitebeam. Gina Romantica makes three Browns, and while she’s simply not as fast as Brown’s big two, Gina Romantica did win the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over the Keeneland turf course a year ago. What about this question: Is Whitebeam pulling an In Italian on In Italian? In Italian, a 4-year-old at the time, came to the 2022 First Lady regarded as Brown’s B Team, second choice at nearly 3-1. Her stablemate, 6-year-old Regal Glory, was even-money. In Italian took a clear early lead, set a strong pace, and never looked back. She had become the better horse. Now, In Italian is the older athlete, Whitebeam at age 4 a year her junior. In Italian is 4-5 on Keeneland’s morning line, Whitebeam 3-1, but Whitebeam beat In Italian in their common last start, the Grade 1 Diana on July 15 at Saratoga. It’s not impossible that, quietly, the lesser-known horse has crept up on the established star. :: Bet Keeneland with confidence! Get DRF PPs, Picks and more. Answers come after the Brown trio and six others run one mile around Keeneland’s grass course in the Grade 1, $750,000 First Lady. The race is the first of three straight Grade 1s, carded as the eighth, and is followed by the Breeders’ Futurity and the Coolmore Turf Mile. Frankly, it’s difficult to see anyone other than In Italian or Whitebeam winning, as it would take a misfire from both horses to open that door. Evvie Jets has the best chance among them. She beat Whitebeam this past April in the Plenty of Grace Stakes, and while Evvie Jets won that day because she controlled a dawdling tempo, the mare is tactically versatile. She captured the Ballston Spa on Aug. 24 at Saratoga, coming from nearly 10 lengths off the pace, though Evvie Jets did get a sweet inside run and a perfect trip in the Ballston Spa. Whitebeam has hit a much higher mark since Evvie Jets got her six months ago. Jumbly, an Ireland shipper trained by Joseph O’Brien, finished a closing third with no apparent excuse in the Ballston Spa and was eighth in her lone Group 1 appearance, the 2022 French 1000 Guineas. New Year’s Eve wanted no part of quirky Kentucky Downs last out and will run better Saturday, but she’s not good enough to win. Gina Romantica has been playing catch-up all year and seems headed in the right direction, but she needs more than one mile for her best showing, and even her best, to date, isn’t good enough to win. So, it comes down to In Italian, Whitebeam . . . and course conditions. In Italian, a truly excellent mare, beaten only by the top-class Tuesday going beyond her best trip at 1 3/16 miles in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf last fall, likes to hear her feet rattle. The faster the turf, the better she runs. In Italian clocked 1:33.22 winning the 2022 First Lady, the second-fastest time in race history. She ran nine furlongs in 1:45.06, a Saratoga course record, winning the 2022 Diana. The winning time in this year’s Diana was nearly three seconds slower, a massive difference. The course was listed as firm but was not. Whitebeam has thrown down a couple 22-and-change final quarter-miles, yet required 12.76 seconds to cover her final furlong. That was just fast enough to nip In Italian in a photo finish after Whitebeam had stalked the pacesetter while keeping eventual third-place finisher Fev Rover stuck down inside. In Italian had the same gap between starts, Diana to First Lady, in 2022. There were no suitable races for either elite Brown horse between the two races. “Them not having run since the Diana won’t be the reason they win or lose,” Brown said. If In Italian got Keeneland turf like the one she ran over a year ago, she’d wire the First Lady, plain and simple. There was a good chance of rain Thursday into Friday, after which temperatures plunge. If rain does come, the course will hold water, and slower ground gives Whitebeam a shot. Joel Rosario rides In Italian. Flavien Prat is on Whitebeam. Watch the weather late this week in Lexington. Then go watch the two Brown horses put on a show in the First Lady. – additional reporting by David Grening :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.