Welsch: Kentucky Derby analysis
1. McCraken
2. Always Dreaming
3. Irish War Cry
4. Tapwrit
There are lots of variables to consider and questions to answer with this Derby field, with the prospect of a wet track adding yet another question mark to an already muddled equation. MCCRAKEN, like just about all the leading contenders, has one hiccup on his résumé, that coming in the Blue Grass, in which he encountered some trouble and entered not 100 percent fit after skipping a scheduled start in the Tampa Bay Derby. All signs point to him moving forward off that setback, including a series of extremely impressive works punctuated by extended gallop-outs and his perfect record in three starts on the Churchill Downs main track.
I came to town thinking ALWAYS DREAMING was the most talented member of the field, and nothing he’s shown in his works following his Florida Derby win suggest otherwise. But his inability to ration his high energy level in the morning since arriving at Churchill is cause for some concern, as he must relax if he’s to stay the 10 furlongs. If he passes muster in the paddock and post parade, he’s strictly the one to fear.
IRISH WAR CRY has sandwiched huge performances in the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial around an inexplicably poor effort in the Fountain of Youth, with his bounceback victory in the Wood coming against the grain of a track bias. He need only repeat either of those tries to prove a major factor.
TAPWRIT also suffered his one blip in the Blue Grass, an effort that can be tossed in light of a slow start and a wide trip. He has made a great impression since his arrival, and I expect to see him rebound and outrun his odds with cleaner sailing.
Hence exits a huge and vastly improved effort in the Sunland Derby and gives every indication in the morning that he’s more likely to repeat than regress off that outing. Like Tapwrit, he’s another price horse capable of springing the upset at his best. Will use Lookin At Lee to fill out exotics. He’s doing well, and watch for him to come running late near the inside for Corey Lanerie. Classic Empire has done nothing wrong exiting his big win in the Arkansas Derby. But he may just have too much to overcome while returning in three weeks and having made just two starts since the Breeders’ Cup. He’s difficult to recommend at an unattractive price as the likely favorite. Practical Joke couldn’t be training better, but I question his ability to stay the distance. Ditto for State of Honor, who has also trained exceptionally well but is perhaps vulnerable at 1 1/4 miles.