Welsch: Give 'Chrome' his due
The final numbers might have been slow, but there is little doubt that California Chrome was superior to his competition in the Kentucky Derby, and none of the new faces signed on Saturday look any better than the group he handled rather easily at Churchill Downs on May 3.
While it is against my nature to take the chalk, it might be prudent to give the favorite his due again Saturday and look for better upset alternatives going 12 furlongs three weeks down the road at Belmont Park.
Dynamic Impact and Social Inclusion appear to have the best chance of preventing a Triple Crown from being on the line in three weeks, although the fact that the latter missed many crucial days of training and a planned prep race in Florida due to a minor foot injury cannot instill much confidence in the speedy but lightly raced colt, whose best number came over a biased strip at Gulfstream Park.
Dynamic Impact, on the other hand, is coming off a career-best performance in the Illinois Derby in what amounted to a two-horse race, and he’s been given ample time to recuperate from that effort. Toss in a nice five-furlong breeze at Churchill on the morning of the Derby and, despite a less-than-desirable post, he looks like perhaps the one who could play spoiler should California Chrome stub his toe, for whatever reason, in Baltimore.
Much has been made of the bad trips both Ride On Curlin and General a Rod had in the Derby, but it’s hard to make a case that either would have been any better than second or third with a cleaner run in Louisville. Of the pair, Ride On Curlin figures to offer the better value while possessing a running style that could prove beneficial in a race featuring a lot of early pace.
General a Rod was taken out of his game from the outset when shuffled back to 16th during the opening quarter-mile of the Derby before encountering traffic issues the rest of the way. I expect to see him sit a lot closer to the leaders this time around, although I’m still not sure he’s as good now as he was this winter over the speed-favoring Gulfstream strip.
Kid Cruz owns a win over the track and a running style that should prove beneficial if the pace gets as hot as expected.