Welsch: 2018 Preakness analysis

Remember the classic final scene in the old movie “War Games”? When the computer runs thousands of mock tests to ascertain the best strategy to win the game Thermonuclear War, and ultimately declared, “The only winning move is not to play.” Well from a horseplayer’s standpoint, that may be the most logical conclusion to draw after assessing this year’s Preakness Stakes, especially with 13 other excellent betting events to sink one’s teeth and bankroll into Saturday at Pimlico.

I mean no matter how you look at the race, it’s really hard to get past Kentucky Derby winner JUSTIFY as the horse to beat and Derby runner-up GOOD MAGIC as clearly being best of the others. Barring something out of the ordinary, perhaps Sporting Chance taking another right turn and running into one of the two favorites somewhere along the way, bettors are likely looking at a $2.80 win mutuel and $4.40 exacta for their wagering troubles.

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Justify withstood a torrid pace to fend off Good Magic’s bid and prove a decisive winner at Churchill Downs, and obviously the wet track that seems inevitable on Saturday should not prove an obstacle for either of the top pair in the rematch. From the looks of things, Justify appears to have bounced back from the “much ado about nothing” foot issue last week in fine fashion, and it would be hard to take a major stand against him in the Preakness – even at the short price – with any real confidence.

Trainer Chad Brown obviously feels his best chance of turning the tables on Justify any time this season – since he has no intention wheeling Good Magic back in the Belmont Stakes – comes Saturday, on the premise his chief rival will be making his fifth start in a three-month span off a fairly taxing effort, considering the pace scenario, in Louisville. But even under those conditions, making up those 2 1/2 lengths on Justify figures to be a formidable task without help from one of the other six members of the field, five if you assume he won’t be able to count on Quip – like Justify owned in part by WinStar Farm –for any significant assistance in that regard.

Filling out the gimmicks behind the top pair might be the only way to play the race for those who feel compelled to do so, and QUIP could prove best of the others, coming in relatively fresh after having skipped the Derby. It will be interesting to see what strategy his connections employ, considering he has drawn the rail but will surely be under orders to avoid a major confrontation with Justify at all costs.

BRAVAZO gave a creditable performance in the slop at Churchill, and while no match for the top two could certainly be as good as if not better than the others in this lineup.

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