Welsch: 2018 Kentucky Derby analysis
It’s tough assessing this year’s Derby with so little seemingly separating a half-dozen or so top contenders. The main question, from a wagering standpoint, is obviously justifying taking a short price on Justify, who may well be the most talented member of this bunch but perhaps not worth the short price his unblemished record and all the hype surrounding his sudden rise to stardom is sure to bring, especially considering his inexperience.
With that said, the next echelon of contenders may begin with AUDIBLE, who ran against the grain of the prevailing Gulfstream Park track bias when he made a steady, wide run to earn high marks winning the Florida Derby. He did that off a below-average set of works coming into the race. The fact he has trained much more efficiently coming out of that win is taken as a sign he just might be prepared to duplicate or even move forward off that performance with any kind of racing luck.
VINO ROSSO clearly got the better of Audible when paired in the morning prior to his impressive triumph in the Wood, and he, too, has come out of the effort looking like a horse capable of even better Saturday. He has shown a great energy level in the morning since shipping from Florida and certainly is bred to handle the added distance. The one caveat came Tuesday morning when he drew somewhat unfavorably in post 18.
I like the way GOOD MAGIC improved in the Blue Grass off his disappointing 3-year-old debut in Florida, and I love the way he’s come out of the race, giving off every sign that he’s sitting on a career-best effort in the Derby.
As noted above, JUSTIFY is the big key to this one, and those siding against him are counting on his inexperience to become an issue if things don’t go well in that crucial opening quarter-mile and he’s faced with overcoming adversity for the first time following three pretty sanitary trips to launch his career.
Like Justify, Hofburg is extremely talented but inexperienced, with only three starts. He has looked very sharp in two of his three works coming out of his second-place finish in the Florida Derby, getting the best of Jim Dandy and New Orleans Handicap winner Good Samaritan at Payson Park several weeks ago, and giving off great vibes since arriving at Churchill earlier in the week. He figures to be coming late if able to work out a trip from far back in the bulky field.
