Welsch: 2018 Belmont Stakes analysis

Identifying the best horse in a race and the best horse to risk one’s bankroll on from a value standpoint are two different things, and once again that handicapping tenet comes into play in the final leg of this year’s Triple Crown. Nobody will question that Justify is the most accomplished member of the field and strictly the one to beat. But there are just enough reasons to believe he could be vulnerable to not accept a win price that figures to be somewhere in the vicinity of 3-5.

VINO ROSSO looks more than capable of outrunning his odds Saturday. The son of Curlin is clearly bred to get the distance, earned high marks winning the Wood Memorial, and trained extremely well going into the Derby only to have his chances compromised by a combination of the wet track and a wide trip. He’s since had five weeks to freshen up and prepare for the task at hand; has once again trained like a horse sitting on a big effort; and trainer Todd Pletcher has proven time and again to be a master when it comes to having his horses ready to peak on Belmont Day.

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JUSTIFY certainly appears to have bounced out of his grueling and dead-game performance in the Preakness quite well from the looks of his two subsequent works, and if left to his own devices on the front end would certainly be tough to deny in his quest to complete the Triple Crown sweep. But as noted earlier, there are just enough lingering doubts to take a stand against him at the short price.

HOFBURG has a lot of upside, but he, too, figures to be grossly overbet compared to the form he brings to the table. Obviously the added distance should play to his advantage, and his two most recent works give the impression the lightly raced but extremely promising colt is sitting on another forward move exiting the Derby. The two main caveats with Hofburg are his running style should Justify be able to walk through an easy early lead and accepting somewhere in the vicinity of 4-1 in the Belmont Stakes on a horse still eligible for his first-level allowance condition.

Like stablemate Vino Rosso, NOBLE INDY has trained extremely well since his eventful trip in the Derby, including a very impressive-looking half-mile move without blinkers May 25. He also gives every indication of being able to outrun his odds given the right kind of trip.