Welsch: 2017 Belmont Stakes analysis

The dynamic of this year’s Belmont Stakes, especially from a wagering standpoint, changed dramatically shortly before the post-position draw with the sudden and unfortunate withdrawal of Preakness runner-up Classic Empire. With the likely odds-on favorite out of the lineup, several key contenders who might have offered some value on the tote will now wind up short prices themselves, most notably Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry.

Considering the extremely wide-open nature of the race, with so many unknown factors coming into play, not the least of which being the 1 1/2-mile distance, it behooves one to look for a price. So, why not TWISTED TOM, who continues to improve with every start, is undefeated since stretching out around two turns, has enough pedigree to suggest he might handle the distance, and has the red-hot trainer-jockey combo of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in his corner? Twisted Tom has held his own in the morning on a couple of occasions, working alongside no less formidable a mate than Grade 1-caliber Economic Model. He should be able to carve out a nice trip behind the projected speed of Meantime and Epicharis if he avoids traffic into the opening bend from his inside post.

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IRISH WAR CRY looked like he absolutely had to finish first or second in the Derby as the field turned for home before inexplicably coming up empty down the lane, perhaps due in large part to his running on what appeared to be the deeper going out toward the middle of the track that day. He certainly had his convincing victory in the Wood Memorial flattered when Cloud Computing returned to win the Preakness, and he, too, has enough pedigree power to stay 12 furlongs.

SENIOR INVESTMENT has seemingly bounced out of his career-best performance in the Preakness in good order from the looks of his training at Belmont this past week. He is a rapidly improving 3-year-old who may well be sitting on yet another big effort Saturday.

TAPWRIT gets a mulligan for his somewhat disappointing performance in the Derby after being severely knocked about immediately after the break along with both Classic Empire and McCraken. That’s two unlucky trips in a row for a colt who had shown so much promise earlier in the season.

Lookin At Lee has trained well since arriving off yet another good showing in Baltimore, but you have to be concerned about just how much is left in the tank for the only member of the field facing the grueling task of competing in all three legs of this year’s Triple Crown.