Well-traveled Apalachee Bay big threat in handicap

A whole set of American racetracks have ditched handicap races. Will Rogers Downs embraces them.

Recent cards often have had one or two open handicaps – a real relic of the American condition book – and the featured ninth race Monday is just such a contest. The race is carded at one mile, open to all comers, the field leveled in competition by weights assigned at the draw. The weight spread here is real enough, too, with the top horses toting 124 pounds, those at the bottom 114.

The top weights are Hunka Burning Love and Stephen’s Answer, while the top pick from this handicapper is Apalachee Bay.

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Weighted at 122, Apalachee Bay ships to Will Rogers from Sunland Park, where he has been posting encouraging-looking works for trainer Greg Tracy. Apalachee Bay is a 5-year-old Malibu Moon horse owned by Peter Redekop who was solid California allowance horse before becoming a mainstay of the Canadian dirt-route stakes circuit during 2019. He won the John Longden Handicap in June at Hastings Park, isn’t totally exposed in middle-distance dirt races, and with an alert break can get a good tracking trip Monday in his first start since Sept. 7.

Apalachee Bay never has started for Tracy, who has done remarkably well with horses returning from extended layoffs, winning 40 races with 127 starters coming back from break of at least 120 days over the last five years for a $3.27 return on investment. That entire sample, however, is based on sprint races and DRF Formulator shows no route starts following layoff of 120 days or longer.

Hunka Burning Love races after a $32,000 claim April 26 at Oaklawn, trainer Karl Broberg claiming the horse for himself. Broberg had Hunka Burning Love for one forgettable race last fall, losing him for $62,500 at the Keeneland meet after Flurry Racing had claimed him for $50,000 a month earlier.

Stephen’s Answer, the co-highweight with Hunka Burning Love, was claimed for just $7,500 last August at Canterbury and proceeded to go on a four-race winning streak that included the $100,000 Delta Mile. He’s recently been less effective for trainer Robertino Diodoro and owner Empire Racing Stable and could be on the wrong side of a form peak.

Tour de Force, weighted 122, also merits mention. A mountain of a horse, Tour de Force once was a promising prospect for trainer Mark Casse and owners Kinsman Stable and John Oxley, but he was claimed for just $12,500 when last seen racing in January in New York and makes his first start for new connections Monday.

A couple other Will Rogers tidbits for Monday:

* Longshot winners abounded last racing week at Will Rogers, and for two racing weeks now favorites have been taking it on the chin. Take this micro-stat: During the three-day race week spanning April 27 through April 29, favorites in sprints won once from 16 starts. Things only improved slightly in the most recent three-day week, when sprint favorites went 3 for 17. All favorites have a 28 percent strike rate since April 1 and are 31 percent for the meet, which began in mid-March.

* Visual Punch in race 3 Monday looks like an older horse who has learned a new trick – winning. Visual Punch won once from his first 11 starts before trainer Michael Gunter took blinkers off the horse in March 2019. Visual Punch, returning from a winter break, aired in an Oklahoma-bred allowance with the equipment change, then caught a pair of wet tracks he seemed to dislike in his last two starts at age 6. Back from an even longer break, he won a higher-level Oklahoma-bred allowance April 1 at Will Rogers by 1 ½ lengths, making him two for two in fast-track starts with blinkers off. As long as the track is dry Monday, Visual Punch can hit hard in this open first-level allowance.