Well-connected Eustacia has upper hand in Bird of Pay

There isn’t much doubt that Eustacia will be heavily favored to win the $50,000 Bird of Pay for 2-year-old fillies at Northlands Park on Friday. The Kentucky-bred daughter of Forestry is coming off an easy 3 3/4-length win going 3 1/2 furlongs in a maiden special weight race Aug. 20.

Her sharp race isn’t the main reason she will take most of the action in the 6 1/2-furlong race, however. Her connections of trainer Greg Tracy and jockey Rico Walcott are dominating the standings at Northlands this year, and according to DRF Formulator, they have teamed up to win at a 40 percent clip – 31 for 78 – at the current meet.

:: Learn more about Formulator | Follow the @DRFFormulator Twitter feed and get free Formulator facts

Walcott has won 95 races at the meet, compared with 55 for Scott Williams, who sits second in the standings. If Tracy was a jockey, his 77 wins would put him in second. As a trainer, he is 44 wins ahead of second-place Rod Cone.

Eustacia has to prove she can carry her considerable speed around two turns. Prior to her easy win, she took a five-length lead into the stretch going 5 1/2 furlongs but ran out of steam and finished second behind her stablemate, the 2-year-old gelding Dr Hook McCracken. Williams rode Eustacia in both races.

Williams, who won the $73,110 Speed to Spare for Tracy with Deadly Truth last Monday, was supposed to ride another Tracy 2-year-old, Macho Babe, who is undefeated and won the Princess Margaret Stakes in her last start. However, she was withdrawn from the race after injuring herself in a workout.

“Scotty said Eustacia was a bit green and may have moved too soon into a pretty fast pace,” said Tracy. “I don’t think she’ll have any trouble going 6 1/2 [furlongs].”

KEY CONTENDERS

Eustacia (Last 3 Beyers: 69-52-55)

◗ The one to catch and beat, she easily owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field.

◗ DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past five years, Tracy has a 27 percent strike rate with 2-year-olds running in non-graded stakes races at Northlands. The number swells to 50 percent with Walcott riding.

Quality Lane (Last 2 Beyers: 40-50)

◗ The Kentucky-bred daughter of Quality Road rallied to finish second behind Macho Babe in the $50,060 Princess Margaret. There should be a fast pace for her to work with, and she appears to have the best shot of catching the likely favorite.

◗ She is trained by Joan Petrowski, who is closing in on 1,000 wins in her career. Going into Friday, she has won 992 races.