Weekend Warrior for Sept. 6: Picks for Iroquois, Dueling Grounds Derby, Super Derby
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Saturday’s stakes action includes the Grade 2, $400,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs, the $250,000 Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs, and two stakes at Churchill Downs for older performers. Nevertheless, there is still a strong 2-year-old theme Saturday.
The other two stakes at Churchill – the Grade 2, $200,000 Pocahontas and the Grade 3, $100,000 Iroquois – are for 2-year-olds, as are the other two stakes at Kentucky Downs and a handful of the supporting stakes at Louisiana Downs.
In addition, there are two $250,000 Florida Stallion Series Stakes for juveniles at Gulfstream, and Arlington offers its pair of 2-year-old stakes – the Grade 3, $125,000 Arlington-Washington Futurity, and the $100,000 Lassie.
Iroquois Stakes
Without question, Mr. Z has the best paper going into this race. He was a game second in the Saratoga Special last time out and was much the best when a narrowly beaten second in the Sanford two starts back after being given a ridiculous trip. And Mr. Z won a debut at Churchill three back that was flattered when third-place finisher Hashtag Bourbon, who also is in this race and is dangerous, came back to dominate the Mountaineer Juvenile.
However, all of Mr. Z’s starts to this point were in sprints, and now he must go two turns, which can be a huge equalizer for 2-year-olds at this time of year. Moreover, D. Wayne Lukas, the trainer of Mr. Z, has, according to DRF ’s Formulator, shaky numbers stretching out 2-year-olds to a route. He is only 2 for 69 over the last five years in such situations, and both winners came five years ago.
I like Danny Boy, and not only because he resembles the profile of Cleburne, the upset winner of this race last year at 34-1 for the same Dale Romans barn. Danny Boy recently made his debut at Ellis Park, notably going two turns, was well bet, and overwhelmed his field with a wide rally on the far turn to win as much the best. Although that race was on turf and this one is on dirt, Danny Boy does not have a pedigree exclusive to turf. In fact, he is out of a mare who, in her brief career, finished second in the Grade 2 Adirondack Stakes on dirt at Saratoga.
Dueling Grounds Derby
I guess I’m hoping for the Romans barn to have a big day because Medal Count will be hard to beat in this spot.
Yes, I know that Medal Count is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. But against a field that with one exception (Global View) is comprised of allowance and minor stakes winners, Medal Count owns a massive class edge. Frankly, this is a rare instance when a price close to 5-2 would represent real value.
I only hope that Medal Count’s last-place finish in the Haskell Invitational most recently scares bettors off, because with the way Monmouth’s main track became increasingly speed-biased on Haskell Day, closers like Medal Count had zero chance. Before that, Medal Count was a fine third in the Belmont Stakes, a creditable eighth in the Kentucky Derby after having trouble all over the track, and ran two big races on Keeneland’s now-defunct Polytrack. Medal Count won his only prior attempt on turf, and being a son of Dynaformer, he’s now finally getting to do what he likely wants to do most, which is go long on grass.
Super Derby
A case could be made that Vicar’s in Trouble is formidable here simply because his third-place finish most recently in the West Virginia Derby behind Tapiture and Candy Boy came against much better horses than he faces Saturday. But I liked Vicar’s in Trouble last time and was disappointed that he didn’t finish better after having an easy, uncontested early lead.
With Ide Be Cool capable of keeping Vicar’s in Trouble occupied early, this race might fall apart late, and I’m going with East Hall. East Hall finally got away from Gulfstream, a track that isn’t kind to deep closers like him, last time out in the Ohio Derby at ThistleDown. And it might not be a coincidence that he was able to produce a successful late run to nail Jessica’s Star (also in this race), even when Jessica’s Star looked like he was home free late.