Weekend Warrior for Sept. 27: Picks for Jockey Club Gold Cup, Rodeo Drive, Beldame
Santa Anita calls its Saturday card “Breeders’ Cup Challenge Day.” Belmont Park’s program is dubbed “TVG Super Saturday.” Both tracks present five Grade 1 stakes races, led at Santa Anita by the Awesome Again, featuring Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Shared Belief, and at Belmont by the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Jockey Club Gold Cup
The two main speeds in this race, Moreno and Big Cazanova, drew posts 11 and 12, posts that are certainly no bargain going 10 furlongs on Belmont’s main track. And as fine a form as Moreno is in right now, and even though he was beaten just a nose in last year’s Travers, 1 1/4 miles isn’t really Moreno’s best distance.
Look for this race to be won from off the pace, and that works in favor of the trio of 3-year-olds everyone is talking about, the one-two-three finishers in the Travers – V. E. Day, Wicked Strong, and Tonalist. But while I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if any of those three won, I like Zivo more.
Zivo was merely prepping for this race when he ran in the Woodward last time out off a layoff of almost two months and on a Saratoga surface that isn’t his favorite. Yet he still ran creditably, finishing fourth, beaten only three lengths. Now, Zivo returns to a Belmont surface on which he has done his best work, including an emphatic three-length score over Moreno in the Suburban two starts back at this distance.
Rodeo Drive Stakes
I have never been Emollient’s biggest fan due to her inconsistency. But this is a great spot for her, and she is my play.
Emollient has always been best when she has used her speed. She was nowhere near the early lead in her last two races, and the results were poor. But with blinkers on Saturday, and with a fast recent work, it looks like Emollient is going early, and she has back races in which she went early that are good enough. Moreover, outside of Cozze Up Lady, there is no one else to go with Emollient, and Cozze Up Lady doesn’t necessarily want the lead.
In Santa Anita’s other Grade 1 stakes, I anticipate a successful comeback for Beholder in the Zenyatta. The FrontRunner is a tricky race. American Pharoah might be tons the best, but do you want to take a tiny price in his first start on dirt and his first around two turns? The trouble is that there is virtually no dirt form in the race. I will go with Lord Nelson.
:: Breeders’ Cup Challenge: Results, replays, charts, and more
Shared Belief is the textbook bingo free space in the Awesome Again. And in the Chandelier, I prefer Conquest Eclipse. She was third in the fast-early, slow-late Del Mar Debutante but was at least moving forward late and did win on dirt in her well-bet debut.
Beldame Stakes
Stopchargingmaria might beat her elders here, but if she does, she will beat me, too. Stopchargingmaria’s win last time in the Alabama was historically slow, and she has no speed-figure edge whatsoever on several of her opponents.
I liked Toasting last time when she won Belmont’s Sky Beauty and like her to win right back. Toasting signaled a return to top form with a second at Woodbine two back and figured to benefit from a return to dirt, which she did. Toasting’s second in the Comely last fall to the then-highly regarded Wedding Toast can win this.
In Belmont’s other stakes, I don’t like the short price on Itsmyluckyday in the Kelso, but he gets a great setup and should win. Abaco’s win in the Ballston Spa most recently was good, and I will take her to score back, but Tannery is a live longshot, and Stephanie’s Kitten is super logical.
He simply might not be as good as Palace, but Salutos Amigos ran dynamite last time out when second against a strong track bias. I take him as the bigger price, but Palace will be a handful in pursuit of his third straight Grade 1 win and with a good pace setup. Finally, I can’t argue with Main Sequence in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. He ran very well in winning the Sword Dancer and United Nations in his first two U.S. starts. Big Blue Kitten will love the added distance and is the main threat.