Weekend Warrior for Sept. 20: Picks for Cotillion, Pennsylvaniia Derby, Charles Town Oaks
Parx Racing has firm command of center stage Saturday with a pair of $1 million races – the Grade 1 Cotillion and the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby – not to mention the Grade 3, $300,000 Gallant Bob Stakes.
Cotillion Stakes
Let’s cut right to the chase. Untapable lays over this field. Whatever chance Untapable had against males last time out in the Haskell Invitational evaporated when Monmouth’s main track became profoundly speed-biased, severely compromising closers like her. But before the Haskell, Untapable was awesome in winning her first four starts this year.
So, why am I even talking about this race? After all, the goal of Weekend Warrior is to look for value. And at likely odds of less than even-money, Untapable doesn’t exactly represent a decent return. I’m using this race because I think I can get Sweet Reason out of the exacta and get a price horse in underneath.
Sweet Reason is a terrific filly, but victories in the Acorn and Test in her last two starts were a direct result of her cutting back to one-turn races. Sweet Reason’s three two-turn attempts haven’t been anywhere near the same quality as her one-turn outings, and I don’t see a reason to expect a better outcome going long this time.
House Rules, likely to go off far lower than her 20-1 morning-line odds with the probable scratch of 7-2 second choice Shopchargingmaria, is the one I will be using to complete the exacta.
House Rules couldn’t dent Sweet Reason in the Acorn or Untapable in the Mother Goose, but those were one-turn races. When stretched back out to two turns last time out at Saratoga in her first start for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, House Rules scored impressively. That win was of similar quality to House Rules’s near-miss in the Gulfstream Oaks early this year, and yet it appears that she still has room for improvement.
Pennsylvania Derby
I doubt Art Sherman would bring California Chrome east if he didn’t think he had him ready to win. And I’m sure Parx management will have the main track, which often features a dead rail, as even as they can make it. But I still think this is a trap race for California Chrome. He must find a way to get from his rail draw to outside of Bayern – who isn’t as bad as his Travers loss but isn’t as good as his bias-aided Haskell score – and C J’s Awesome (also a bias-aided winner most recently), because that’s how he prefers to run. California Chrome also comes into this off the longest layoff of his career.
Tapiture is my play because I trust him more to run his race than the others. Tapiture was tons the best in winning the West Virginia Derby last time, somehow managing to get up after taking up inside in upper stretch at a loss of two to three lengths and all his momentum. And the form of that race got a boost when third-place finisher Vicar’s in Trouble came back to romp in the Super Derby.
Charles Town Oaks
This race demands an imaginative approach, and I’m taking a flier on Nesso.
Nesso suitably cuts back in distance, sports the good old Z pattern (speed and fade last time, good close before that), and I think her close second in the Cash Run two starts back is better than the mid-70s Beyer Figure would suggest. Little Alexis (an entrant in the Cotillion) won the Cash Run with a 78 Beyer but won her debut right before that with an 89 Beyer and came back to be a close third in Saratoga’s Test with a 91 Beyer.