Weekend Warrior for Sept. 13: Picks for Noble Damsel, Bold Venture, Kentucky Cup Turf
Turf is the name of the game Saturday. Of course, all four stakes at Kentucky Downs, led by the Grade 3, $600,000 Kentucky Cup Turf, are on grass. Both of Belmont’s stakes – the Grade 2, $500,000 Sands Point and the Grade 3, $200,000 Noble Damsel – are on turf. So, too, are the $200,000 Mystic Lake Derby at Canterbury Park; the $200,000 PTHA President’s Cup at Parx Racing; the Grade 3, $175,000 Pucker Up at Arlington; and two of the three stakes on Woodbine’s card.
Noble Damsel Stakes
Given the level of competition in this race, I would be surprised if Annecdote, a Group 3 stakes winner in England last year, doesn’t take a lot of money in her U.S. debut, and I would consider it a negative sign if she doesn’t. Annecdote was a good third in a Group 3 in her first start this year and gets Lasix for the first time Saturday, which might explain her relatively dull effort at Royal Ascot in her most recent outing.
Moreover, Annecdote might catch familiar footing, with rain a possibility for New York on Saturday, and she goes for the formidable Christophe Clement barn. According to DRF ’s Formulator, Clement is a healthy 6 for 25 with a $3.45 return on investment at New York tracks over the last five years with foreign shippers on turf making their first starts for him. It should be noted that Clement is 0 for 2 with such horses in graded stakes, and while that’s a tiny sample, both horses ran poorly. But if Annecdote takes the money I think she will, her price will be no bargain.
Of the locals, Julie’s Love, Tokyo Time, and Devilish Love will have their supporters, but I’m against them. The five-month layoff Julie’s Love brings into this is no concern because she’s backed by a tremendous layoff trainer in Graham Motion. I just wonder if she’s good enough even at the top of her game. Tokyo Time won her last two starts but had perfect setups both times. And Devilish Love won her last three but meets much tougher here.
I’m going with Baffle Me, a onetime speedball who had an interesting trip in the De La Rose Stakes last time out. Baffle Me was taken way off the early pace that day, a position alien to her, but she rallied nicely to finish fourth and galloped out very well past the wire. Notably, the De La Rose runner-up, Dayatthespa, came back with a big win in the Yaddo Stakes over the accomplished Discreet Marq, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Baffle Me has a fine record on turf at Belmont and can sit a sweet trip stalking the pace from close range.
Bold Venture Stakes
Sometimes you have to follow a horse to another country. And sometimes you have to follow that horse even when you know you’re not going to get a great price on him. That’s the story with me and Sensational Slam in this race, the only one of the three Woodbine stakes Saturday that isn’t on turf.
Sensational Slam impressed me when fourth in Monmouth’s Teddy Drone Stakes two starts back. The Teddy Drone was run on the Haskell Invitational undercard, and Sensational Slam, who also ran well in his prior three starts in New York, managed to gain ground into the teeth of a strong speed bias that was in full force when his race was run.
Sensational Slam was to have run back in an overnight race at Saratoga (and I was ready to take the rubber band off the bankroll to bet him) but was scratched and instead ran in the Grade 1 Forego. Despite being 51-1 in that spot, he was far from disgraced, finishing fifth, beaten only five lengths.
Not only is Sensational Slam in an easier spot here, he’s also returning to Woodbine’s Polytrack, where he has had success. In 2010, he won the Clarendon and Vandal stakes as the favorite in his first two career starts.
Kentucky Cup Turf
War Dancer is probably the one to beat while dropping off a fourth in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. But I don’t find him that imposing, and I like Holiday Star instead.
Holiday Star missed by a nose in the John’s Call last time to Tricky Hat (who also is in this race) but had the tougher trip, being three-wide on the first and third turns. Holiday Star is much improved this year and has another step forward in him.