Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 5: Picks for Woodward, More Than Ready, Prized

Saturday kicks off a furious Labor Day weekend of coast-to-coast stakes racing, and if bettors might feel overwhelmed at times by the sheer number of racetracks running on a single day, that sensation surely will overtake anyone digging deep into the stakes schedule: There are 24 stakes scheduled at tracks in the United States and Canada on Saturday alone.

Saratoga and Del Mar both have Grade 1 races for 2-year-old fillies, the Spinaway and the Del Mar Debutante, while all-turf, Euro-style Kentucky Downs launches its short annual meet, its purse account bursting with capital that horsemen gladly will chase, the entry box burgeoning.

The Weekend Warrior will make a stop at Kentucky Downs, hit Saratoga for the most important race in the country Saturday, and take a quick tour to Florida, where Gulfstream has rich sire stakes.

Woodward Stakes

Is Todd Pletcher really running all four of his entrants in the eight-horse Woodward? I will remain somewhat skeptical until scratch time because the Pletcher quartet includes three horses who to some extent get in one another’s way. Liam’s Map is the fastest, but Coach Inge wants to stick close to the front, as does Protonico.

:: DRF Live: Watch live handicapping analysis of Saturday’s Saratoga card starting at 4 p.m. Eastern

Liam’s Map ran a tremendous race in the Whitney, nearly overcoming a compromising pace but getting nipped by Honor Code, the best older horse in North America. That was Liam’s Map first start in seven weeks and just his second race since December, and a return to action four weeks after a career-best effort should naturally lead a horseplayer to consider regression.

Pletcher points out that his two Woodward winners, Lawyer Ron and Quality Road, also ran in the Whitney, but Lawyer Ron had five weeks, not four, between starts and had raced in April, May, and June. Quality Road had a profile like Liam’s Map’s: Gulfstream winter form, break until late spring, then the Whitney-Woodward double, separated by four weeks. Quality Road’s Beyer Speed Figure declined five points from the Whitney to the Woodward, where he pressed a comfortable pace and beat inferior foes Mythical Ruler and Tranquil Manner.

Liam’s Map seems to be in for no such luck. Even if he makes the front over his stablemates, he will have to deal with the fast Bay of Plenty, and it’s just really hard to see the Woodward’s early and middle pace being anything but demanding. And Liam’s Map is 6-5 on the morning line.

Effinex should get a far better race flow, might be Liam’s Map equal in any case, and is 4-1 on the morning-line, which makes him an appealing play. Effinex ran (using that term loosely) a disastrous Brooklyn Handicap but has done nothing wrong the rest of this season. His allowance comeback win came at the expense of Coach Inge. In the Excelsior, he beat Woodward runner (and exacta candidate) Wicked Strong and the vastly improved Red Rifle. Tonalist came into the Suburban Handicap looking like the second-best older horse in the country, and Effinex handled him, too. He has been pointed here by a masterful layoff outfit and is a win play and multiple-race exotics key at a square price.

More Than Ready Mile

A $300,000 listed stakes – that’s Kentucky Downs purse money at work. Run over an undulating one mile, the More than Ready is packed with early speed, and it’s hard to see any of the front-runners sticking around to win. Pumpkin Rumble, 20-1 on the morning line, will be nowhere near the front but could be rolling in the final quarter-mile. He hasn’t raced since July 11 but was being considered for the Arlington Million on Aug. 15 and has worked steadily. Just 4, he’s a horse with untapped upside who has handled several different courses – and racing at Kentucky Downs is all about handling the unusual course.

Prized Stakes

Two things jump out in this heavily restricted turf-route stakes: lots of speed and the paucity of proven turf-route horses. El Amirante comes off a maiden win in his 11th career start and is going to look light on credentials to most players. He might be, but his odds will rise accordingly. He was stepped up in class and absolutely cruised to a maiden special weight turf-route win on the course last time, inhaling the leaders with a good move off the turn and into the homestretch – exactly the sort of style that can win this race at a long price.