Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 30: Picks for Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Awesome Again Stakes, Commonwealth Derby

NEW YORK – Although some horsemen feel fresh is best for their Breeders’ Cup horses, there are still important prep races five weeks before the big event.

Santa Anita has five such Grade 1 events Saturday, worth $300,000 each. They are the Awesome Again, the Zenyatta, the Rodeo Drive, the FrontRunner, and the Chandelier. Belmont Park has three Grade 1 stepping-stones to the Breeders’ Cup (along with a Grade 3): the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, the $400,000 Beldame, and the $350,000 Vosburgh.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Oscar Performance, winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and off three straight stakes victories, is unquestionably the most accomplished 3-year-old turf horse in the country, with a Grade 1 double in the Belmont Derby and the Secretariat his last two starts. But as fine as his record is, Oscar Performance has been blessed with very favorable trips during his win streak, having been right with or in control of slow early paces. And yet even after getting optimal trips, Oscar Performance has managed a top Beyer Figure of only 96. He meets older horses for the first time here – older horses who are much better and faster Beyer-wise than anything he has faced before. Maybe Oscar Performance has forgotten how to lose, but if he wins, it will be without me.

The Chad Brown-trained pair of Arlington Million winner Beach Patrol and Sword Dancer runner-up Money Multiplier will have their supporters. But Beach Patrol got a dream trip himself in Chicago, and Money Multiplier flat hung in the Sword Dancer, so I’m looking elsewhere.

Sadler’s Joy tormented me at Saratoga. I needed him for a multi-race bet in the Bowling Green early in the meet and he had no excuse to lose after rallying to the lead in midstretch. And he beat me out of a valuable multi-race bet when he upset the Sword Dancer. Sadler’s Joy obviously can win, but I’m out of sync with him and won’t pick him here. And you have now been advised.

I’m going with Ascend. Ascend was much too far back early when fifth in the slow-paced Arlington Million after bobbling at the start. And being wide around all three turns didn’t help when he was the beaten favorite in the Sword Dancer two starts back. But three back, in his last appearance at Belmont, Ascend ran huge winning the Manhattan Stakes, even if he was a 27-1 upsetter, and I’m banking on a return to that form Saturday. Ascend secured good early position in the Manhattan, something I hope he does again here, yet still produced a powerful final quarter-mile that suggests this 1 1/2-mile distance is within his scope.

Awesome Again Stakes

Cupid is the marquee horse here, but he is flawed. Cupid was very impressive winning the Gold Cup over the track last May off an eight-month layoff, but he struggled to prevail in the Brubaker most recently at 2-5.

This is a good spot for Mubtaahij to make some noise. Mubtaahij returns to the U.S. after finishing fourth in the Dubai World Cup behind Arrogate and Gun Runner, makes his first start for trainer Bob Baffert, and gets blinkers on, which for him might be a very positive equipment change. Mubtaahij’s against-the-bias third in the Suburban and his near-miss in the Woodward last year put him squarely in the mix with this field, and there is ample speed to ensure an honest pace, and setup, for his late kick.

Commonwealth Derby

This is one of three graded stakes Saturday at Laurel and it lured Voodoo Song, who was a king of Saratoga of sorts this year. He went 4 for 4 at the meet. But that also means Voodoo Song had a demanding four starts in six weeks, and his wins came on hard turf courses that were often kind to speed horses, such as him.

Profiteer is my play. Profiteer moves back in with straight 3-year-olds after getting up over a solid field of older allowance horses most recently at Saratoga. Equally important, Profiteer fits the profile of a Shug McGaughey-trained late developer, which means his best races are still in front of him.