Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 3: Picks for Glens Falls, Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint, Juvenile Fillies

The Warrior is focused on the green Saturday, aiming to earn some cash on the grass in races from Saratoga to Kentucky Downs. So, let’s get to handicapping.

Glens Falls

A 1 3/8-mile turf contest for older females, the Glens Falls is likely to have two clear favorites in the one-two finishers from the Waya Stakes, Guapaza and Suffused. And if that is indeed the case, such betting would create value on other participants.

At least that is what I hope the betting public does because I like the chances of Itsonlyactingdad, who has looked like her old self in her last two starts after a dreadful performance in the spring in the Jenny Wiley. She just missed when second in a Belmont allowance in June and last time on July 31 scored a 1 1/4-length victory over the classy Tammy the Torpedo in the Grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth Park.

Those efforts earned her Beyer Speed Figures of 94 and 96 – numbers that match up with recent figures from the favorites.

So, why might Itsonlyactingdad be ignored? She has no experience in a race of this length.

Itsonlyactingdad gives the impression that she ought to like the distance. She has finished well in most of her races, including when second to Lady Eli in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last year at 1 1/4 miles. And she has a staying pedigree, being by Giant’s Causeway and out of an A.P. Indy mare.

Listed at 9-2 on the morning line, Itsonlyactingdad could drift a tick or two up from that provided there aren’t any scratches.

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint

The favorite is Undrafted, a millionaire who won the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee last year at Ascot. And though he could win, I don’t want any part of betting him in the win pool, not after he has been beaten at short odds the past two years at Kentucky Downs.

Viewing this race as competitive with as many as five major contenders, digging for value seems like the way to go. And the value would appear to be Almasty, who sits at a generous 10-1 on the morning line.

I doubt he will go off that high, but odds of 6-1 or 8-1 seem reasonable on a horse who won the Grade 3 Commonwealth last year and has run well on firm ground this year.

Granted, he came up empty last out when fifth in the Oceanport on yielding turf at Monmouth, but he previously had been second to both Blacktype and Full Mast – two quality turf milers.

Now, Almasty cuts back in distance to 6 1/2 furlongs, but having performed well in one-turn races going seven-eighths at Belmont, a long sprint seems to be something he likes.

Juvenile Fillies

Handicapping this Kentucky Downs race Thursday morning before the release of the morning line, I settled on Lull, believing she might offer a little value with Forest Circle potentially being favored after a troubled trip when fifth at less than even-money at Woodbine.

Then the morning line came out, and I was a bit disappointed to see Lull tabbed as the 5-2 favorite. So, I’m less enthusiastic about her now, at least in terms of value, but believe she still warrants a play if she drops no lower on the tote.

Lull looked sharp in winning a maiden race at first asking at Belmont and then was lucky to avoid disaster at Saratoga in the Bolton Landing Stakes on Aug. 17. That day, she clipped heels, crashing hard to the turf, but reportedly avoided injury.

Lull seemed to be traveling well in that race prior to the incident and likely would have at least hit the board. So, let’s hope the experience didn’t sour her and she can run back to her potential.

No one in this field has run as high a turf Beyer as Lull’s 71 from her debut, though Forest Circle did post a 79 in winning her first race on Polytrack at Arlington over the summer.