Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 29: Picks for Jockey Club Gold Cup, Lukas Classic, Rodeo Drive Stakes

It promises to be a fun day of stakes action Saturday, with Breeders’ Cup preps coast to coast and points between.

Santa Anita has four Grade 1 stakes, each worth $300,000 – the Awesome Again, Rodeo Drive, American Pharoah, and Chandelier. Belmont has three Grade 1’s – the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup, the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and the $350,000 Vosburgh, supported by the Grade 3, $200,000 Pilgrim.

Churchill Downs has three Thoroughbred stakes on its evening card, topped by the Grade 3, $200,000 Lukas Classic, while Laurel offers six stakes, led by the Grade 3, $200,000 Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup.

Jockey Club Gold Cup

Obviously, Diversify will take a ton of beating as his performances in the Whitney most recently and the Suburban two starts back were tremendous. He set fast paces under serious pressure in both events, yet drew away in both to win in thoroughly decisive fashion and in fast times. And if anything, Diversify is returning to his favorite surface Saturday – he is 6 for 8 on Belmont’s main track, with two seconds.

That said, I’ll try for an upset because I can see a scenario in which Diversify comes under pace pressure in waves from Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn. And really, how many monster performances can Diversify string together?

Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn won’t be my alternatives to Diversify. Thunder Snow might have run away with the Dubai World Cup in his last attempt on dirt, but he did so riding the crest of a strong inside speed bias. Likewise, Mendelssohn capitalized on the bias when he won the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup undercard, and he was with the grain of what I thought was a speed-favoring track when an improved second in the Travers most recently.

I liked Gronkowski in the Travers, and he rewarded me with a distant eighth, but I’m giving him another try. Whatever chance the late-running Gronkowski had in the Travers was compromised with the way the track was playing, and he now returns to Belmont, where he was an excellent second to Triple Crown winner Justify in the Belmont Stakes. While Gronkowski did get a nice rail run in the Belmont, he was going 12 furlongs off a two-month layoff and also had little pace to rally into. He showed a lot of talent to run as well as he did.

Lukas Classic

Mind Your Biscuits is a terrific horse. He won the last two Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheens and a Grade 1 earlier in his career at Santa Anita, and was beaten just a nose in the prestigious Met Mile only two starts back. He has finished third or better in 20 of 23 career starts and has earned nearly $4.2 million. However, for almost the entirety of his career spanning four seasons, Mind Your Biscuits has been a one-turn closer, and this race is a two-turn route.

Yes, I know Mind Your Biscuits finished second last time in the Whitney going two turns at Saratoga. But his performance only reinforced my belief that he is far more effective at one turn. Mind Your Biscuits was never a real threat to win the Whitney, I don’t think he really stayed the trip, and I feel he finished second mainly because somebody had to. And while it is true he doesn’t have to chase Diversify in this easier spot, he’s still a bet against for me at this 1 1/8-mile distance around two turns.

Honorable Duty is my play. Honorable Duty is repeating the pattern that preceded his decisive score in last year’s Lukas Classic. He comes into this fresh off a second-best performance 3 1/2 months ago in the Grade 1 Foster, when he was much farther off the early pace than expected. That was his trip in the 2017 Foster when he chased Horse of the Year Gun Runner, and I do hope he’s more involved early Saturday night.

Rodeo Drive Stakes

The female turf division this year in Southern California has not been up to its usual high standards, as evidenced by Vasilika’s recent win in the John C. Mabee Stakes. Vasilika was winning her sixth straight race in the Mabee, but she was claimed for only $40,000 early this year.

I want a new face here, and Paved is that in the sense she is a 3-year-old facing older opponents for the first time. Paved was good winning the Honeymoon over the course three back, and with aggressive tactics she might lead this speedless field a merry chase.