Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 26: Picks for Jefferson Cup, Rodeo Drive, Pilgrim
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
In the first of two major weekends of Breeders’ Cup preps, Santa Anita and Belmont Park command center stage Saturday. Santa Anita’s opening-day card boasts five Grade 1, $300,000 events – the Awesome Again, Chandelier, FrontRunner, Rodeo Drive, and Zenyatta. Belmont offers three Grade 1 races – the $400,000 Beldame, $600,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and $400,000 Vosburgh.
Jefferson Cup
High Noon Rider earned this field’s best last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 90 when he upset the Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga, but if ever a figure needed to be taken lightly, it is this one. High Noon Rider absolutely walked on the lead, posting fractions of 25.02 and 50.04 seconds on a rock-hard inner turf course that was playing to speed anyway. Given the optimal circumstances he encountered, it’s no wonder High Noon Rider was able to run big and score decisively. But unless he’s the luckiest horse in the world, High Noon Rider is highly unlikely to receive as favorable a trip this time, and that should bring him back to the rest of this field, Beyer-wise.
Nun the Less earned the co-second-highest last-out Beyer of 86 when he won the Mystic Lake Derby at Canterbury, and like High Noon Rider, he was the beneficiary of a highly favorable setup. Nun the Less rallied from way back to win, but the early pace fell apart so badly that even Gallery, a pace-type performer not known for his stretch courage, actually passed opponents to finish second.
Saham is the other one in this field to have earned a last-out Beyer of 86. However, Saham earned that figure under circumstances that were nowhere near as favorable, which is why I like him.
Saham finished fourth most recently in the Centaur Stakes at Indiana Grand, and on paper, his effort looks merely decent. But if you check the replay, you’ll find that Saham was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths after being close to a fast early pace that completely collapsed in the stretch, finishing decidedly better than anyone else who was involved early. Under the circumstances, the 86 Beyer that Saham got in the Centaur was earned the hard way, and it’s just a bonus that it pairs up with his solid score two starts back. I am not thrilled with Saham’s outside draw, but he’s versatile in terms of running style, and I’m banking on him to work out a decent trip.
Rodeo Drive Stakes
The female turf division in California this year seems well below its usual lofty standards. For that reason, this looks like a good spot for a shipper.
Most who agree likely will default to Hard Not to Like, and it’s not hard to see why. Hard Not to Like shipped out West last May and won the Gamely, and that, plus her narrow decision in the subsequent Diana, makes her arguably the top older female grass horse in the country right now. However, in 20 career starts over five seasons, Hard Not to Like never competed at a distance beyond 1 1/8 miles, and she must go 1 1/4 miles on Saturday. The extra furlong might make no difference to her, but she won’t be a big enough price to make the risk worthwhile.
I’m going with Photo Call. She showed real promise when third in the La Prevoyante going 1 1/2 miles and second in the glacier-paced Beaugay, and she put it together most recently with a score in the Violet that was more decisive than it appears on paper. Photo Call might have another step forward in her and can win from anywhere on the course.
Pilgrim Stakes
Forever in Love was bet like he couldn’t lose his recent debut at Saratoga and won so impressively that it would be no surprise if he scored right back here. But I just prefer another first-out winner – Eidmilaad.
Eidmilaad came from off the pace to win his recent well-bet debut at Saratoga, and I thought he was only beginning to do his best running through the wire. Eidmilaad is now first-time Lasix and was cut out to be a good one, being a half-brother to the Grade 1 stakes winner Rutherienne.