Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 24: Picks for Pennsylvania Derby, Gallant Bob, Commonwealth Turf Cup

Many of the year’s best 3-year-old males and females, including Nyquist, Exaggerator, Songbird, and Cathryn Sophia, will be in action Saturday at Parx Racing in the Grade 2, $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby and the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes.

Notable stakes elsewhere include a trio of graded turf events at Laurel, led by the Grade 2, $200,000 Commonwealth Turf Cup; the Grade 2, $200,000 Los Alamitos Derby; and the Grade 3, $200,000 Noble Damsel at Belmont.

Pennsylvania Derby

I do not understand the tactics employed with Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist in his last two starts. He was sent into destructive early speed duels in the Preakness and Haskell, understandably proved unable to survive them, and is now in a position where he needs to win this race to keep his hopes of a 3-year-old title alive because he cannot bank on a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

I don’t get why he was ridden the way he was in his last two when he proved in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he can be effective coming from well off the pace, despite losing huge amounts of ground.

:: PENNSYLVANIA DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live

That said, while I thought Nyquist’s third in the Preakness was the best performance in that race considering that the others who were involved in the pace with him were badly beaten, his fourth last time in the Haskell was not a strong effort. His main pace opponent that day, American Freedom, beat him by slightly more than two lengths, finishing second. And now, with questions over whether he’s as sharp as he was earlier in the year, Nyquist reappears in a Pennsylvania Derby loaded with early speed. Maybe Nyquist will rate this time, but he still must do better than his Haskell.

The projected pace scenario certainly benefits Preakness and Haskell winner Exaggerator, but a rain-free weather forecast for Philadelphia all week does not. Exaggerator has lost his last six starts on a dry track – don’t forget, there was lots of moisture in the track when Exaggerator finished second in the Kentucky Derby due to a big storm right before that race – and that includes dismal 11th-place finishes as the favorite in the Travers and in the Belmont Stakes three starts back.

I’m going with Gun Runner. Gun Runner was beaten 15 lengths in the Travers, but once you get past the freakish Arrogate’s win margin of 13 1/2 lengths, Gun Runner actually ran well, finishing third. He was four wide on the first turn, three wide on the far turn, and was game in chasing American Freedom in a battle for second.

Gun Runner’s form prior to the Travers is clouded by circumstances. He apparently does not like wet tracks, so he has an excuse for his fifth in the Haskell, and it makes his third in the Kentucky Derby look even better than it was. Gun Runner can stalk and pounce, and I like Saturday’s distance cutback from 10 to nine furlongs for him.

Gallant Bob Stakes

Noholdingback Bear was good in finishing third in the King’s Bishop on the Travers undercard and meets an easier group in this supporting feature at Parx. The cutback from seven to six furlongs suits him, and he also might be the controlling speed. But Noholdingback Bear was 25-1 in the King’s Bishop and will be around one-tenth of that price Saturday.

Southern California shipper Who’s Out is an appealing alternative. Who’s Out will like cutting back from a route to a sprint and comes out of live races two and three starts back. Who’s Out finished second at Del Mar two back, and fourth in that race was Power Jam, who came back to win the Pirate’s Bounty Stakes. Who’s Out won three back at Santa Anita, walloping Jazzy Times, who romped in his next start, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.

Commonwealth Turf Cup

With two of this race’s top contenders (March and Force the Pass) poorly drawn on the extreme outside, I’m siding with an admitted pet of mine, Farhaan.

:: COMMONWEALTH DERBY: Get PPs, watch Saturday's card live

Farhaan might have won two $40,000 claimers at Saratoga, but he was a horse with some big back performances and darkened recent form who was taking big edges in those spots. And he proved it with a very good fourth most recently in his first start off the claim in the Bernard Baruch. Farhaan was gaining against solid stakes company that day, beaten one length despite the rider losing his whip.