Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 23: Picks for Cotillion, Gallant Bob, Dogwood

NEW YORK – Parx Racing has center stage Saturday with a Grade 1, $1 million stakes doubleheader: the Pennsylvania Derby and the Cotillion Stakes. Parx’s principal undercard event is the Grade 3, $300,000 Gallant Bob Stakes. Belmont offers two stakes – the Grade 2, $300,000 Kelso Handicap and the Grade 3, $200,000 Noble Damsel – with the remaining graded event of the day being the Grade 3, $300,000 Charles Town Oaks.

Cotillion Stakes

Abel Tasman is the most accomplished 3-year-old filly in the nation and comes into this with a three-race Grade 1 winning streak, all since blinkers were added to her equipment. She capitalized on a pace meltdown to loop her field from last of 14 in the Kentucky Oaks, made good on a daring rail move in the Acorn, and prevailed most recently in the Coaching Club American Oaks after a wild, wide early move, edging Elate, who came back to romp in the Alabama.

Obviously, Abel Tasman will take a lot of beating Saturday. But one cause for pause is that her recent Beyer Figures in two-turn races, such as this one, aren’t that strong. Abel Tasman did earn a field-best 99 Beyer when she won the one-turn Acorn, but she received winning Beyers of only 92 when she took the Kentucky Oaks and CCA Oaks. Perhaps Abel Tasman won those routes only because she’s so good, which might again prove to be the case Saturday. But I wonder if she might not be most effective in extended one-turn races, and if she might be a bit more vulnerable here than her fine record would suggest.

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I like Lockdown. Lockdown was a tired sixth last time out in the Alabama after being taken back early and making a four-wide run around the far turn. But I had questions going into the Alabama about Lockdown getting the 1 1/4-mile distance, and I think she will relish the cut-back to the Cotillion’s 1 1/16 miles.

Lockdown finished second at this distance two starts back in the Mother Goose in a fine effort considering that the winner, Unchained Melody, got loose on an easy, uncontested early lead. Moreover, Lockdown earned a 96 Beyer for that effort, a number that makes her as quick as anyone in this field. And Lockdown ran well three starts back when a surprising third in the Kentucky Oaks after a bad trip (not the “nightmarish go” that appears in the trouble line in her past performances, but a bad trip), and easily could have been closer to Abel Tasman that day.

Gallant Bob Stakes

Coal Front was a disappointing fifth most recently in the Allen Jerkens Stakes, but he won his previous three starts, including the Amsterdam Stakes, like a good one. And because of common ownership, he is coupled here with Petrov, who after going down the Kentucky Derby prep road early this year won his last at Saratoga as though his niche is in one-turn races such as this one.

Together, Coal Front and Petrov make an imposing entry, but I’m going with Excitations. Excitations finished second to Coal Front in the Amsterdam in his most recent outing, but his effort was a winning one. Not only did Coal Front enjoy a big tactical edge on the stretch-running Excitations as the Amsterdam’s controlling speed, but Excitations also ran against the grain of a Saratoga main track that was speed favoring on that day. All of Excitations’s sprint outings have been good, and if California shipper American Pastime goes enough early to keep Coal Front honest up front, Excitations can turn the tables on his rival.

Dogwood Stakes

This feature at Churchill lured the three-time Grade 2 stakes winner Farrell, who will be making her first start since stopping in the Kentucky Oaks. Farrell’s paper says she can win, and given her success at shorter middle distances, I actually like this seven-furlong trip for her. Trouble is, Farrell just isn’t that fast. Her three best Beyers are an 86, an 84, and an 80, and unless she demonstrates improvement, which is possible with maturity, she might be outrun by horses who are simply faster.

Covenant is my play. Covenant comes off only a maiden win in her second start, and in the slop to boot. But she impressed in that score, as she did when second to the three-time Grade 1 stakes-placed Salty in her debut, and her Beyers are already among the best in this race.