Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 19: Picks for Cotillion, Pennsylvania Derby, Dogwood
Despite competition from an intriguing array of stakes elsewhere, Parx Racing clearly rates top billing Saturday. Parx’s Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes and Grade 2, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby head a card that includes three other stakes, most notably the Grade 3, $300,000 Gallant Bob.
Laurel offers a pair of Grade 2 events Saturday, the $400,000 Commonwealth Derby and the $250,000 Commonwealth Cup. And that’s not all for the Mid-Atlantic region. The Grade 3, $350,000 Charles Town Oaks tops a program at that track that also includes a handful of other stakes.
The main event at Belmont is the Grade 3, $200,000 Noble Damsel, while the feature at Churchill Downs is the Grade 3, $100,000 Dogwood. And Kentucky Downs has four stakes on its card, led by a pair of $300,000 events – the Ladies Turf and the Ladies Marathon.
Cotillion Stakes
The Parx main track usually plays to outside closers, but it did a complete 180 on Cotillion/Pennsylvania Derby Day last year, when it became downright speed favoring. I’m anticipating a repeat this year. Parx played more toward speed on Tuesday, the last day of racing there before Saturday. With no rain in the forecast through the weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is tightened up further and leans even more toward speed.
That said, I couldn’t go all in on speed here because the pace horses are suspect. Take Charge Brandi, last year’s champion 2-year-old filly, might be the quickest early. But I couldn’t touch her after her first start back from injury in the Test, in which she stopped badly despite setting only a moderate pace.
Embellish the Lace parlayed an easy early lead into a win in the Alabama. But she won’t be getting to the front easily this time, and she has yet to show that she can be anywhere near as effective after conceding the early lead.
I want someone who can stalk from close range. That describes I’m a Chatterbox, this year’s most consistent 3-year-old dirt filly, with wins in the Fair Grounds Oaks, Rachel Alexandra, and Silverbulletday; seconds in the Alabama and CCA Oaks; and a third in the Kentucky Oaks. And I’m a Chatterbox really needs a win here because she needs a Grade 1 victory to legitimize her candidacy for a divisional championship. But I’m a Chatterbox will be the favorite and offers no value.
I’m going with Tara’s Tango. Tara’s Tango is good enough to win off her narrow miss two starts back in the Summertime Oaks to Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winner Stellar Wind, whose only loss this year was a gaining fourth in the Kentucky Oaks. Tara’s Tango showed in that race, and in her second in the Angel Flight three back, that she has the speed to stay close early.
Pennsylvania Derby
Frosted found himself last spring when he committed to a closing running style. Yet when he ran in the Travers, he showed speed to force American Pharoah’s pace. That’s not Frosted’s best approach, so his Travers third was even better than it appears. But I expect Frosted to close Saturday, and I wonder how that style will play.
Upstart is plenty good enough, but I wasn’t crazy about his fourth in the Travers, and I’m just not sure how sharp he is right now.
I can’t resist going back to Iron Fist, whom I liked last time in the West Virginia Derby. Iron Fist checked nearing the first turn that day and then, despite racing near or on the deadest rail you will ever see, made a run to look like he might win, only to fade late. Iron Fist should be prominent early in a race that doesn’t have all that much speed and is better than he might seem on paper.
Dogwood Stakes
Super Majesty may win this, but I didn’t like her loss in a four-way photo at 1-5 last time, so I will opt instead for Pleasant Tales.
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Pleasant Tales’s drubbing last time in the Test was simply bad, but her fourth in the Mother Goose two back was a terrific effort. Pleasant Tales was close to a brutally fast pace that day, and it is to her credit that she held as well as she did. Embellish the Lace was also a pace player in that race and finished up the track, but as noted above, she came back to win the Alabama.