Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 17: Picks for Pocahontas, Northern Dancer, Iroquois

Eyes will look to our neighbor to the north Saturday, when the champion Tepin makes her first start since her historic Queen Anne Stakes win at Royal Ascot in the Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile. It’s one of four stakes on Woodbine’s card.

Churchill Downs also offers four stakes, led by the Grade 2, $200,000 Pocahontas.

Pocahontas Stakes

There is plenty to consider in this route stakes for 2-year-old fillies. For example, Bling On the Music might be a monster after winning her three races by margins of 4 3/4, 8 1/2, and 13 lengths, all in front-running fashion. Any of her three Beyer Speed Figures is better than what any anyone else in this field has ever earned, with the 88 she received two starts back towering over this group.

Still, Bling On the Music is facing better company than the Texas-breds she beat in her first two starts or the males she walloped last time at Arapahoe, while also stretching out to a 1 1/16-mile distance she is not guaranteed to like. So, I’m standing against her.

You also must decide what to do with Dream Dancing, who moves from turf to dirt after running very well going long at Saratoga in her first two starts. Here’s what makes the decision difficult: Dream Dancing is undertaking this surface switch at Churchill, where the main track has a reputation for being kind to turf horses. But as much as I fear Dream Dancing, I looked elsewhere because the bottom side of her pedigree is essentially all turf.

I’m drawn to two coming off big wins in one-mile off-the-turf races at Ellis Park – Sully’s Dream and Daddys Lil Darling.

Daddys Lil Darling did have to await racing room on the far turn most recently, but she didn’t have as much trouble as her comment line, “Jammed through,” infers. She was still an impressive eight-length winner, though, improving off a creditable fourth in her debut and earning a 69 Beyer that was nine points higher than Sully’s Dream’s.

But I still prefer Sully’s Dream. Sully’s Dream was making her career debut when she won that off-the-turf race, so she’s eligible to take a big step forward Beyer-wise the second time out. Moreover, Daddys Lil Darling beat just five opponents, while Sully’s Dream romped by 12 lengths over 11 rivals while being full of run every step of the way. Moreover, the fact that Sully’s Dream was sent off as the 5-2 favorite in her only start against that big of a field suggests that her abilities are not a secret.

Northern Dancer Turf

I have serious doubts about the strength of this year’s Arlington Million, an opinion that will be put to the test here with half of the eight horses entered – Wake Forest, World Approval, The Pizza Man, and Danish Dynaformer – all coming out of the Million. I’ll play against all of them.

People forget that Big Blue Kitten was last year’s champion turf male, even if he wasn’t the very best turf male seen in 2015. But he’s a champion bettors might underestimate in this spot off two apparently dull efforts this year, and underestimating a champion, especially one trained by Chad Brown, could be a mistake.

Big Blue Kitten did not run well when fifth in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic in his 2016 debut, but his subsequent sixth in the Manhattan was not as bad as it looks on paper. Big Blue Kitten checked on the rail into the stretch of the Manhattan when Ironicus came over on him, and he was pretty much wrapped up on from that point home.

Iroquois Stakes

Blame Will and Recruiting Ready are the fastest here in terms of Beyers. But D. Wayne Lukas, the trainer of Blame Will, is 0 for 7 with no seconds or thirds over the last five years with 2-year-olds going sprint to route on dirt in graded stakes, and Recruiting Ready tired badly late while sprinting in the Saratoga Special, so I’m going with Not This Time.

Not This Time was an easy 10-length winner over maidens last time going a mile at Ellis after being hard held early, which suggests that he will rate. But perhaps the most impressive aspect of his maiden romp is that he went his last quarter-mile in a fast 23.33 seconds.