Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 12: Picks for Iroquois, Sands Point, Kentucky Turf Cup
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
After Saratoga and Del Mar pretty much dominated the action for the last seven weeks, the focus shifts to Kentucky, where eight stakes races will be decided between Kentucky Downs and Churchill Downs between Saturday and Monday.
Kentucky Downs’s four stakes, which have been moved to Monday due to inclement weather, have a total value of $1.5 million, led by the Grade 3, $600,000 Kentucky Turf Cup. At Churchill, the Grade 2, $200,000 Pocahontas, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Iroquois top Saturday's card.
Two other rich events Saturday are the Grade 2, $500,000 Sands Point at Belmont Park and the Grade 2, $400,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs.
Iroquois Stakes
Cocked and Loaded is not just the only one in this field of 12 to have won more than once, he is also the only stakes winner. And when Cocked and Loaded won the Tremont Stakes three starts back in the second outing of his career, he beat a decent bunch, including Swipe, who came back to win the Summer Juvenile Championship at Los Alamitos and then finished second in the Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity to Nyquist, who looks like the best 2-year-old male in the country at this moment.
After the Tremont, Cocked and Loaded was the beaten favorite when sixth in the Sanford Stakes and fifth in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. I can understand where some might make excuses for Cocked and Loaded in those races. The Arlington-Washington Futurity was his first encounter with a synthetic track, which he might not have liked, and the Sanford was that crazy race in which Magna Light was all over the track in the stretch. But what I see in Cocked and Loaded is a colt who hasn’t really progressed from his early baby races and might be vulnerable Saturday in his first attempt around two turns.
Of the 11 others in the Iroquois, five are maidens, and six are just maiden winners. So, in this particular race, there is no reason for concern if you’re drawn to a horse who hasn’t actually won yet. That’s how I feel, and I’m going with the maiden Condominium.
Condominium made two starts at Saratoga and showed speed in both. He surrendered readily in his debut in a race that turned out to be a good one, as the winner, Saratoga Mischief, came back to be a close second in the Saratoga Special, and the runner-up, Greenpointcrusader, came back to win his next outing. But Condominium showed dramatic improvement with Lasix in his most recent start on the Travers undercard while sneakily bet. He controlled the pace in what was the faster division of this split maiden race and was easily second-best behind Ready Dancer, who really raised his game with blinkers on. Condominium, by Tiznow, should love the stretch-out to a route, can be the controlling speed here, and seems poised for a big step forward.
Sands Point Stakes
I’ve been vocal about how European shippers this year can have their way in our big fall turf races. But I feel that our 3-year-old filly turfers, who take on four European invaders in this race, are a solid group, even in the absence of Lady Eli. In fact, the U.S.-based Miss Temple City’s fourth in the Group 1 Coronation at Royal Ascot last June is better than anything the European shippers in this race show.
Now, in my heart, I feel Sentiero Italia, who beat Miss Temple City in the Lake Placid most recently, is the better of the two. Sentiero Italia is really good. But the trip handicapper in me has to give Miss Temple City the chance to turn the tables here. Sentiero Italia beat Miss Temple City by 1 1/4 lengths in the Lake Placid. But Sentiero Italia had a much better inside-out trip, while Miss Temple City lost so much more ground being at least three wide around both turns.
Kentucky Turf Cup
Quiet Force is my play. I can make an excuse for his Arlington Million debacle because not only was he overmatched in that one, but the deluge before the race had to make for tricky footing, something Quiet Force may not have liked.
Before the Arlington Million, however, Quiet Force ran the best race of his life, winning the Arlington Handicap. Not coincidentally, that was Quiet Force’s first opportunity to go as far as 9 1/2 furlongs. Quiet Force must go 12 furlongs Monday, but he is by Dynaformer, and I suspect he will relish extended distances.