Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Sept. 10: Picks for More Than Ready Mile, Kentucky Turf Cup, Laurel Dash

Saratoga and Del Mar are over, which presents the opportunity for other tracks to grab the stakes spotlight. Kentucky Downs does so Saturday, with the Grade 3, $600,000 Kentucky Turf Cup topping a card that has three other stakes, including the $400,000 More Than Ready Mile and the $350,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint.

The richest race elsewhere is the Grade 3, $400,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs.

More Than Ready Mile

Saying that pace setup is important to a handicapper is about as profound as saying the sky is blue. Duh. But the pace setup in this race really is especially critical.

Watchyourownbobber comes into this looking for his third straight stakes victory and is absolutely the one to beat. But in his recent stakes successes, Watchyourownbobber, a horse who likes to be close early, first prompted a pace that was comfortable and then tracked a pace set by a seriously overmatched longshot. In both races, the paces held together reasonably well. However, Watchyourownbobber might have a tougher time of it pace-wise Saturday.

Songsational is very quick early, and barring a bad start, he is going to the front. If Songsational finds it necessary to go fast early, and Watchyourownbobber stays close, as is his wont, it will tax Watchyourownbobber’s late reserves. If Songsational slows it down early, then he’ll have more in his tank with which to resist Watchyourownbobber’s inevitable move, meaning Watchyourownbobber at some point might have to work hard to get by him.

In the end, Watchyourownbobber should still get the measure of Songsational. But whichever way it happens, it might come at a greater cost than Watchyourownbobber had to pay in his last two starts. And that might set this race up to be won by a closer.

Some might opt for Hootenanny, the winner of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, who got a confidence-building win last week at Belterra. But Hootenanny is not for me as he has never run a race fast enough to win this. Instead, I’m going with Dimension.

Yes, Dimension’s running line last time out in the Play the King Stakes, an eased sixth and last, is ugly. But it’s a good sign that Dimension is back on relatively short rest, and his win two starts back over a legitimately solid field at this one-mile distance in the King Edward Stakes – his second straight stakes upset – was good enough to get the money here. I also like that in his only prior start over the course, Dimension won the 2014 Kentucky Downs Turf Dash.

Kentucky Turf Cup

It might be foolish to go against Da Big Hoss at a short price as he goes for his fourth straight marathon-turf-stakes win. But I’m hoping his uncoupled barnmate Greengrassofyoming will be close to his 7-2 morning-line price because he is a viable betting alternative.

Greengrassofyoming fits the profile of so many Mike Maker-trained turf horses who get really good after being claimed, with Da Big Hoss being a prime example. Greengrassofyoming won the Stars N Stripes two starts back in his first outing for his new connections, and most recently, he was beaten just a little more than a length when fourth at 47-1 in the Arlington Million. And that after traffic trouble into the stretch.

Now, this year’s race was far from the strongest Million ever. In fact, it was pretty much on a par with the American St. Leger, won by Da Big Hoss three races earlier. But it was a step forward for Greengrassofyoming, and I expect him to take another Saturday, which might be enough.

Laurel Dash

We’ve got a middle-distance turf race and an extended-distance turf race this week, so why not this turf sprint, one of six stakes on Laurel’s Turf Festival card?

The venerable Ben’s Cat will be going for his 33rd career victory here, and despite being on a three-race losing streak, he will take a good bit of money. But even though Ben’s Cat has rebounded from brief losing streaks before, he is 10, and I prefer a relative whippersnapper, the 7-year-old Spring to the Sky.

Spring to the Sky, who won this race last year in the absence of Ben’s Cat, has been sharp this year since being gelded. He’s also the best speed, which betrayed him against tougher in Saratoga’s Troy Stakes most recently but served him well in a game win at Belmont three back.