Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 3: Picks for Breeders’ Futurity, Frizette, Eddie D
This is the last major weekend for Breeders’ Cup preps, and Belmont and Keeneland lead the way with stakes-packed cards. Belmont offers six graded stakes, four of them Grade 1’s, ostensibly topped by the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup. Keeneland has five graded events, three of which are Grade 1’s, headed by the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile.
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Exaggerator owns this field’s best Beyer Speed Figure, an 85 earned in a game victory last time out in the Saratoga Special. Exaggerator, like many others in this race, is stretching out to two turns for the first time, but as a son of Curlin, he has as much license as anyone here to like the added distance. You have to include Exaggerator in multirace exotic wagers even if parimutuelly speaking, he’s not that interesting.
Uncle Vinny, Sheikh of Sheikhs, and Sticksstatelydude are three others who made their last starts at Saratoga, and I’m less enthusiastic about them. Uncle Vinny was lucky to be placed first in the Sanford Stakes two starts back and was an outrun third in the Hopeful most recently. I’m troubled by how sluggish Uncle Vinny has been early in his races. Maybe having blinkers on will address that, but they won’t help his difficult outside draw.
Sheikh of Sheikhs won his first and only start but was cold on the board that day, the wire arrived at an opportune time, and I’m skeptical about him successfully stretching out, at least right now.
Sticksstatelydude, who overcame greenness to get his maiden victory at Saratoga, is an interesting illustration of how not all key races are equal. Sticksstatelydude beat two next-out winners in his maiden win. However, one of those was a completely different horse when he won, thanks to the addition of blinkers, and the other was a completely different horse off the switch to turf. For those reasons, I’m less bullish on Sticksstatelydude’s maiden race than others might be.
I like Brody’s Cause. Brody’s Cause never moved a muscle in his debut two starts back on turf but was a completely different horse when moved to dirt most recently. He won the faster division of a split maiden race at Churchill Downs and impressed visually. Although last of nine early, Brody’s Cause was clearly full of run from the get-go, and he ran around everyone late on the far turn and through the stretch to win going away. Brody’s Cause won’t be 33-1 again but should still be a good price and is likely to improve with more experience and distance.
Frizette Stakes
I try to avoid using seven-horse races like this one in the Warrior column. But this is an exception given the projected odds of Where’s the D.
Where’s the D has a profile similar to Brody’s Cause. She didn’t do much running in her debut two back at Del Mar but improved big time most recently to score decisively there at 34-1 after contesting the pace well in hand. Moreover, she earned a 73 Beyer that puts her in the ballpark with everyone else here. The big lure, however, is that Where’s the D is the third 2-year-old this year to come from Del Mar to New York for a stakes. The first two were Exaggerator, who won the Saratoga Special, and Ralis, who won the Hopeful for these connections.
Eddie D Stakes
Midnight Storm, third in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile just three starts back, was out of his element on dirt in the Pacific Classic last time and certainly will appreciate getting back on turf Saturday. But I’m not sure he’s a good fit for a downhill event such as this one. He might be forced to close, and that may not be his best game. If you take Midnight Storm off the table, you can go in many different directions here.
No Silent is my play. No Silent is a veteran with some back class who has gotten very good again. He won his last two at Del Mar, earning a competitive Beyer most recently. Notably, Midnight Storm ran well early in his career on the downhill, including a second to Sweet Swap, who later won a downhill graded stakes.