Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 29: Picks for Awad, Bold Ruler, Autumn Miss

The stakes action across the country is relatively light this week – not surprising with the Breeders’ Cup coming up next weekend. Still, there are some secondary stakes that hold appeal for the Weekend Warrior this Saturday, and we’ll take a look at those.

Awad Stakes

The Awad, one of three stakes at Belmont Park, is a one-mile turf race for 2-year-olds who weren’t quite up to the standard necessary to fit in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. My strategy is to play the class by backing the 2-year-old I feel exits the strongest race. That horse is Frostmourne.

A winner first out at Saratoga, Frostmourne raced in the Oct. 1 Pilgrim at Belmont and had the misfortune of chasing Oscar Performance, one of the likely Juvenile Turf favorites. Stalking the pace for much of the race, Frostmourne surged into second in midstretch, only to flatten out late to be fourth, beaten 8 3/4 lengths over a yielding course.

Having won his maiden on firm ground, Frostmourne could stand to benefit from catching similar conditions Saturday. And the weather looks promising for that after Thursday rain in New York. Dry, windy conditions were forecasted for Friday and Saturday.

Hopefully, Frostmourne will stick to or exceed his 7-2 morning line, with speed-figure players focusing on other horses with higher Beyer Speed Figures.

A number of other horses have shots, too. But I simply don’t view the horses exiting the Bourbon or Summer stakes to be coming out of as strong a heat as the Pilgrim.

Bold Ruler

A few races later at Belmont, Stallwalkin’ Dude and Economic Model figure to draw most of the public’s betting dollars in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, potentially creating value on my selection, Threefiveindia.

Although Threefiveindia isn’t as stakes-tested as the favorites, he acts like a quality colt, having won a couple of allowances this summer before a third in the Grade 3 Gallant Bob at Parx on Sept. 24. The top two finishers in the Gallant Bob are among the best 3-year-old sprinters in the country.

So, for Threefiveindia to run a close third to Noholdingbackbear and Mind Your Biscuits is a reflection that he is of high quality. And he managed to finish third despite stumbling at the start.

Granted, Threefiveindia is now facing some older horses, but being lightly raced and seemingly improving, he may have more upside than his older counterparts.

I would put him as the second-most likely winner in the race behind Stallwalkin’ Dude, but he offers value in the wagering at his 6-1 morning line.

As for Stallwalkin’ Dude, I see no way he goes off at his 7-2 morning line after a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Vosburgh behind Joking. He figures to dip to 2-1 or so.

Autumn Miss

Lastly, we look at the Autumn Miss at Santa Anita, where 3-year-old fillies race a mile on turf and Belvoir Bay and Danilovna figure as the favorites.

They seem legitimate, with Belvoir Bay possessing speed and sharp form and Danilovna winning her U.S. debut after spotting the field a couple of lengths at the start. They just won’t offer much in the way of prices.

Barleysugar, on the other hand, may fall through the wagering cracks after running third in an allowance in which she was favored Oct. 6. Having watched that race, her performance was disappointing.

That noted, I’m willing to give Barleysugar a pass since the race unfolded without much pace and she seemed overeager while stalking slow splits down the backstretch.

Barleysugar seems like a more effective runner when the pace is quick and the field stretched out, a scenario that would seem likely to develop with speedster Belvoir Bay in the lineup.

Barleysugar won the Sandy Blue Handicap in fast time at Del Mar this summer when she raced in a fast-paced event, falling 10 lengths off the leaders and storming home to win going away.

Hopefully, the presence of speed in the Autumn Miss will allow her to repeat that performance and reward her backers at her 5-1 morning-line price.