Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 28: Picks for Athenia Stakes, Bold Ruler Handicap, Twilight Derby

NEW YORK – The last Saturday card of the Belmont fall meet is a good one, with four stakes, three of which are Grade 3, $200,000 races: the Athenia, the Bold Ruler, and the Turnback the Alarm. It’s also the last Saturday of the Santa Anita fall meet, with the Grade 2, $200,000 Twilight Derby as the headliner. The feature at Keeneland is also a Grade 2, $200,000 event: the Fayette Stakes.

Athenia Stakes

Off Limits was bet in last month’s Noble Damsel as though she could not lose and, sure enough, she got the money. But Off Limits didn’t simply win, she drowned her field in a most impressive performance. She rallied from off the pace into fractions that really weren’t all that fast, especially considering the level of horse involved, inhaled her field by midstretch, and ran off to score by almost five lengths in a final time (1:32.51 on Belmont’s Widener turf course) fast enough for a Beyer Figure of 105. That Beyer is higher than any the 12 others in this race have ever earned – in fact, Time and Motion is the only other member of this field who has ever broken the triple-digit Beyer barrier, once earning a 100. In other words, if Off Limits runs even close Saturday to the way she did in the Noble Damsel, she will be hard to beat at a short price.

Time and Motion was beaten five lengths by Off Limits when fourth in the Noble Damsel, but I’m taking her to turn the tables. Time and Motion was making her first start in 2 1/2 months in the Noble Damsel, and was too close to the early pace for her own good, as she is most effective as a closer. Nevertheless, the Noble Damsel should work as an excellent prep for Time and Motion, positioning her for a significant step forward, just like she took in the Beaugay last May in her second start of the year.

Time and Motion finished a close third in the Beaugay behind Hawksmoor, the winner, who came back to win the Grade 2 New York Stakes in her next start with a 102 Beyer and who finished second in the recent Grade 1 First Lady. Beaugay runner-up Dacita subsequently won the Grade 1 Beverly D. (also with a 102 Beyer), and was a narrowly beaten second in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. She is a legitimate contender in next week’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

It also doesn’t hurt that Time and Motion will be reunited Saturday with John Velazquez, for whom she has done her best running.

Bold Ruler Handicap

Seymourdini and Stallwalkin’ Dude have attributes that make them obvious win candidates here. Seymourdini made everyone’s jaw drop when he ran off with the State Dinner Stakes last July by 10 1/2 lengths (his third straight victory by a double-digit win margin), receiving a heady 113 Beyer. And among Stallwalkin’ Dude’s best performances this year were on-the-board finishes at Belmont in the True North and Vosburgh behind the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-bound Roy H and Takaful.

That said, Seymourdini and Stallwalkin’ Dude are not invincible. Although he has also run big on dry surfaces, Seymourdini won’t catch the same wet track on which he was so good in the State Dinner. He is also using the Bold Ruler as a prep for the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. And while Stallwalkin’ Dude, who benefitted from a great pace setup when third in the recent Vosburgh, is 4 for 14 going the Bold Ruler’s seven furlongs, I just believe he’s better at shorter distances.

I like Divining Rod. Divining Rod steadied and was hard-held early when a disappointing fourth in the Forego two starts back, but performed much better when a game second to Sharp Azteca in the Kelso Handicap most recently. Sharp Azteca is freakish enough as it is, but he had an easy lead through a slow first quarter in the Kelso while Divining Rod, who never gave up, was hard-held early and had a three- to four-wide trip.

Twilight Derby

Sharp Samurai comes into this off consecutive victories in the Rainbow, La Jolla, and Del Mar Derby. He’s good, but I’m going with the Maryland shipper Just Howard.

Just Howard beat older horses in the Find Stakes two back, and most recently ran down the razor-sharp Voodoo Song, who was coming off four straight wins at Saratoga and was loose on the lead, to win the Commonwealth Derby.