Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 24: Picks for Valley View, Jean Lafitte, Empire Classic
Since the Breeders’ Cup is just one week away, you might have expected a quiet stakes schedule Saturday, but that’s not the case. Santa Anita offers the Grade 2, $200,000 Twilight Derby along with the $70,000 Big Bear, an overnight stakes that marks the return of the talented Dortmund. Keeneland has the Grade 3, $200,000 Valley View; Belmont’s program is Empire Showcase Day for New York-breds, topped by the $300,000 Empire Classic; and Delta Downs offers the $200,000 Jean Lafitte, the local prep for the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Valley View Stakes
Sunset Glow is a Grade 1 stakes winner who also finished second to the brilliant Lady Eli in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Sunset Glow moves back in with straight 3-year-olds Saturday off a close third in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, an often-overlooked class drop that I usually like. But I’m against Sunset Glow, who is always well bet and figures to be once again. Sunset Glow has been unable to find the winning range this year, and I’m put off by the fact that she lacked the speed in her recent starts that she showed in her earlier races.
I’m less opposed to Mrs McDougal. She had little chance trying to close in the slow-paced Sands Point last time out. But she beat lesser company when she won the Lake George two back, so I’m looking elsewhere.
It will be interesting to see what the betting public does with Include Betty, who capitalized on a gigantic pace meltdown when she won the Grade 1 Mother Goose and was desperate to win the Remington Park Oaks last time at 1-5. Include Betty tries turf again almost as if she’s in search of a career path, and she’ll have to show me she can handle the surface.
I like Gap Year, who made an excellent transition to turf over the summer at Saratoga. She was a very game second to a classy opponent in her grass debut and followed with a decisive allowance score. Gap Year is up significantly in class, but the Beyer Speed Figures she earned in her two turf efforts say she can compete with these. Moreover, Gap Year projects to sit a good trip stalking Cara Marie’s pace, and she’s trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who is having another outstanding Keeneland meet.
Osaila also is a contender. She, too, was compromised by the slow pace in the Sands Point and is now first-time Lasix.
Jean Lafitte Stakes
Harlan Punch won his only start at Ellis decisively, but I’m not sure his performance was as impressive as the chart caller or the track announcer would have you believe. Harlan Punch’s time was slower than a 2-year-old filly ran in a winning effort two races later, and except for the runner-up, the subsequent form of everyone else out of his race was mediocre at best.
Forevamo has been competitive with far better and is my play. Forevamo was a beaten favorite at Churchill Downs last time but placed behind a colt who is pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
In his debut two starts back, Forevamo was a good fourth in one of the most productive 2-year-old maiden races of the Saratoga meet. Runner-up Portfolio Manager came back to be second in the Grade 1 Champagne with an 82 Beyer, third-place finisher Gift Box came back to win a Belmont maiden race with a 93 Beyer, and fifth-place finisher King Kranz was second in last week’s Grade 2 Futurity. Forevamo might be the only maiden in this race, but in my mind, he’s taking a massive class drop.
Empire Classic Handicap
Royal Posse and Saratoga Snacks were the one-two finishers in the Evan Shipman at Saratoga last time, but I think third-place finisher Empire Dreams can turn the tables on both Saturday.
Empire Dreams will enjoy getting a fair pace this time and getting back to extended one-turn races at Belmont, where he was very good last meet. Empire Dreams beat Saratoga Snacks back to third in the Commentator Stakes last May and was arguably better than that rival when a close second in the Saginaw in July three starts back. Saratoga Snacks was on a very slow pace that day, and Empire Dreams’s wide, sweeping rally was against the race flow.