Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 22: Picks for Raven Run, Maid of the Mist, Empire Classic

With many of the top horses in the country awaiting the Breeders’ Cup in a couple of weeks, there is little major stakes action this Saturday, with the Raven Run at Keeneland the only graded stakes in the U.S. or Canada.

A deep, competitive field in the Raven Run makes that race attractive, so the Warrior will examine that race along with two others for New York-breds.

Raven Run

A field of 12 led by graded stakes winners Lightstream and Lucy N Ethel is lined up for the Raven Run, a Grade 2, seven-furlong sprint that proves popular with horsemen every year due to the diminishing availability of stakes restricted to 3-year-old fillies on dirt in the fall.

Given the depth of entries and how closely matched the race appears, the Warrior went looking for value and settled on Sophia’s Song. Listed at 5-1 on the morning line, she should drift higher by post time, likely going off at 6-1 or greater, provided there are not any key scratches.

I suspect that some will look past Sophia’s Song after she lost as the heavy favorite in the Charles Town Oaks, in which she failed to show her customary early speed and ran third, beaten a neck, against a field far easier than this one. And I can understand that reasoning. She simply didn’t run very well.

But having watched the replay of the race, it also seems that she didn’t run to her potential. Sluggish to begin, Sophia’s Song had to be urged along continuously during the race, never looking like an eager participant.

This was in contrast to how Sophia’s Song ran in her preceding race Aug. 12 at Saratoga, where she broke running, set the pace, and held second behind the older mare and eventual Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes winner Irish Jasper. That effort earned Sophia’s Song a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, well above the 78 she posted at Charles Town.

I’m hopeful that a couple of key changes Saturday will result in Sophia’s Song running back to her Saratoga race. First, her blinkers are being taken off, and her three wins all came without the shades. And second, Sophia’s Song is stabled at Keeneland and gained some familiarity with the track by breezing there, something she didn’t do at Charles Town.

I also like that Sophia’s Song has a versatile running style and a fondness for racing in one-turn races.

Maid of the Mist

Passporttovictory is by no means a high-probability winner in the Maid of the Mist at Belmont Park, having run fifth in her only prior start against stakes runners, finishing 4 3/4 lengths behind Iron Mizz, one of the leading contenders Saturday.

It is her expected price that is appealing. A 12-1 shot on the morning line, Passporttovictory seems likely to be dismissed by the betting public because she’s not by a flashy sire or from hot connections.

What she does have is early speed. Passporttovictory has some of the highest Moss Pace Figures in the race, and since she hasn’t raced since Aug. 26, she’s fresh and likely will display that quickness.

The hope is that perhaps Passporttovictory can make the lead and get brave, leading to her outrunning her odds.

Empire Classic

There are 3-year-olds meeting older horses in the Empire Classic, the big race of the day at Belmont, and in this case, the Warrior respects an elder – Royal Posse. A $20,000 claim in May 2015 by trainer Rudy Rodriguez, Royal Posse has made $571,400 in 12 starts for his current barn, running first or second every time.

Beyond consistency, one of Royal Posse’s best traits is his versatility. He has won stakes when pressing a slow pace and by rating far behind when the splits have been hot. He also handles fast tracks, mud, and slop.

Normally, a horse like Royal Posse would be favored since his virtues are hard to miss, but the presence of the 3-year-old Governor Malibu likely means Royal Posse will be the second betting choice. Governor Malibu is a well-known horse who raced in the Travers, Jim Dandy, Belmont Stakes, and Peter Pan this year.

Hopefully, the betting action on Governor Malibu keeps moneymaking machine Royal Posse starting at or around his 3-1 morning line.