Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 21: Picks for Raven Run Stakes, Sleepy Hollow Stakes, Hudson Handicap

NEW YORK – Keeneland’s Grade 2, $250,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes is the only graded event on Saturday’s stakes schedule. Otherwise, it’s statebred day, with the Empire Showcase at Belmont; the $100,000 California Flag as the headliner at Santa Anita; and the Maryland Million program at Laurel. Laurel management, in particular, deserves a tip of the hat for producing a card with field sizes of 9, 16, 14, 13, 14, 15, 12, 16, 11, 12, and 10. That’s quite a feat these days.

Raven Run Stakes

Chalon is probably the horse to beat off a game second against older opponents in the TCA Stakes at Keeneland just two weeks ago. Chalon was beaten less than two lengths that day by Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-bound Finley’sluckycharm, although a case could be made it was only that close because Finley’sluckycharm somehow came from off the pace, which is completely opposite of her usual front-running approach. And Chalon is also a question mark at Saturday’s seven-furlong distance, even if she was a decent fourth in the Test three starts back after disputing a hot pace. But Chalon is moving back in with straight 3-year-olds, a big plus for her, and she can certainly win.

This Raven Run brings back the first three finishers in last month’s Charles Town Oaks, but I’m not sold on that race. Runner-up Yorkiepoo Princess turned in a winning effort that night after being more involved in the early pace, which completely disintegrated, than Tequilita, the winner, and Overture, the third-place finisher. But Yorkiepoo Princess was also 75-1, so it makes you wonder how strong a race it really was.

I like Miss Sunset, who has shown marked improvement in her last three starts, all coinciding with a focus on dirt racing after bouncing between turf and the main track the first part of her career. Miss Sunset crushed California-breds in the Fleet Treat Stakes two starts back at this seven-furlong distance, and was very good in a decisive score over open company in Del Mar’s CERF Stakes most recently. She earned a career-best Beyer Figure in the CERF, and after conceding the early lead, proved she doesn’t have to be in front to be most effective. Miss Sunset sports a best-of-59 work at Santa Anita two weeks ago that almost jumps off the page, and should sit a nice stalking trip from her outside post.

Sleepy Hollow Stakes

Battle Station won his debut on turf and then blew his field away in the Bertram F. Bongard in his first start on dirt. Stoney Bennett shipped from Laurel to Belmont for his first start, was bet like he couldn’t lose, and justified the parimutuel support with a decisive score. Both obviously are good enough to win this Empire Showcase event. The trouble is, they may do each other in. Both have shown high early speed, suggesting they might want (need?) the front end, and on Saturday they break from the two inside posts, suggesting they will both go. And the kicker is, they’re stretching out to go as far as a mile for the first time. I want a horse in this spot who can close, and that horse is We Should Talk.

We Should Talk, who also shipped from Laurel to Belmont for his first start, was an 11-1 surprise. We Should Talk showed poise relaxing well off a fast early pace, and he blew past the front-runner in the final furlong like a colt who was only scratching the surface of his ability. Moreover, the 78 Beyer We Should Talk received matched the one Stoney Bennet earned, and was only four points below what Battle Station got in the Bongard under optimal conditions when he controlled a favorable early pace.

Hudson Handicap

This is also an Empire Showcase race, and Celtic Chaos and Weekend Hideaway will surely appreciate the return to statebred competition after finishing a distant fourth and fifth in the Grade 1 Vosburgh three weeks ago. But I like the up-and-coming 3-year-old who upset them both at Saratoga – T Loves a Fight.

In what was his most recent appearance, T Loves a Fight scored going away over Weekend Hideaway, and muted Celtic Chaos’s good late kick. And what was notable about T Loves a Fight’s big win is it was achieved from off the pace on a day when I thought the Saratoga main track was favoring speed.