Weekend Warrior for Saturday, Oct. 17: Picks for Raven Run, Hawthorne Derby, Athenia
As the countdown to the Breeders’ Cup continues, there are a few graded stakes to spice up Saturday’s action: the Grade 2, $250,000 Raven Run at Keeneland; the Grade 2, $200,000 Futurity and Grade 3, $200,000 Athenia at Belmont; the Grade 3, $150,000 Hawthorne Derby; and the Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss at Santa Anita.
Raven Run Stakes
There are several directions for bettors to choose from in this event, though many will opt for Bar of Gold. She finished second in her two most recent starts, in the Grade 2 Prioress and Grade 1 Test at Saratoga, to Cavorting, the probable favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. But while it is entirely possible that Bar of Gold is simply better than her competition Saturday, I’m not thrilled that she gave ground in the final furlong in all four of her stakes starts, and I wonder if seven furlongs might be a touch too far for her right now at this level of competition.
Chide will get a lot of play off a gaining second most recently with blinkers on in the Dogwood, in which she cut back from middle-distance routes to this seven-furlong distance. But even though Dogwood winner Super Majesty also is a BC Filly and Mare Sprint contender, the Dogwood was slow late, with a final furlong in 12.93 seconds, and that might have made Chide’s performance look better than it really was.
I gave long looks to Miss Ella and Forever Unbridled. Miss Ella barely got the job done at odds-on last time out in the Christiecat Stakes, though her performance was better than it might appear as she rallied up the rail at a time when the inside on the Belmont main track was turning bad for a couple of days. But Miss Ella might be an underlay because she won the Beaumont Stakes over the track last spring.
As for Forever Unbridled, I like the combination of a cutback in distance and a class drop out of races like the Kentucky Oaks and Fair Grounds Oaks. Still, she might need a race off the 5 1/2-month layoff.
I’m taking a shot here with Ahh Chocolate. Ahh Chocolate got a good, confidence-building victory most recently at Churchill in, notably, an extended one-turn race. And I can make excuses for her losses two and three starts back, as one was an unsuccessful first attempt on turf, and the other was an unsuccessful first encounter with slop.
If Ahh Chocolate runs back to her third in the Black-Eyed Susan four starts back, she can win this. Ahh Chocolate made a good run from off the pace in that race despite being compromised by a very slow pace and a wide trip and narrowly lost the place to Include Betty, who won the Grade 1 Mother Goose in her next start.
Hawthorne Derby
Nucifera scares me here. Nucifera, whose form in France last year was good, had no shot while attempting to close into a very slow early pace when third in the Better Talk Now Stakes in his recent U.S. debut. But as likely as Nucifera is to improve, I’m going back to Saham.
Saham was a Warrior play last time in the Jefferson Cup off a fine effort two back in the Centaur after being close to a destructively fast early pace. Saham won the Jefferson Cup but did so rallying from last into extremely slow early fractions, which proves just how sharp he is at the moment.
Athenia Stakes
Coffee Clique, Lady Lara, and Faufiler look like the main players, but all are significantly compromised by outside post positions, which are a real disadvantage going 1 1/16 miles on Belmont’s inner turf course.
In light of this, I’ll take Granny Mc’s Kitten. Granny Mc’s Kitten isn’t as good as the three mentioned above, but if that trio is indeed affected by bad trips, she can capitalize because her last three performances put her in the ballpark. Granny Mc’s Kitten was herself compromised by deliberate paces when third over the summer in the River Memories and Violet stakes (won by subsequent Grade 1 Rodeo Drive winner Photo Call) and was a determined allowance winner at Saratoga in between those outings.